Connected Community Conversations

It’s enough to the get through the day.

From a purely psychological standpoint, UTOK situates hope as “high relational value”. According to that scheme of things, my generally hopeful attitude is related to my favorable situation in any number of person-to-person relationships. In economic terms, I’ve figured out how to acquire social capital and have enough of that on hand to satisfy. As for the mammalian foundations of human relationships (UTOK’s favorite framing), my position in my local troops is sufficiently alpha to make me feel welcome and accepted. Even in the face of danger, I keep a chin up. That’s a well-known human type.

Hope also occurs as one of the famous Pauline theological virtues - faith, hope, and charity. UTOK comes from the world scientific emergent naturalism (agnostic to any specific spiritual tradition). Practical spirituality tends to find expression through the vehicle of one or more of these ancient traditions. The metamodern project (I’ve spent hours and hours both online and offline on this) is to reconcile the modern science and the ancient spirituality. The way that plays out in practice - for me anyway - is that “hope” is a sort of spiritual pull that guides action into the future. Being lost from time to time in something akin to Dante’s dark forest, we turn one way or other and put the next foot forward. Not in certainty, but in hope. This could be explicated quite a bit more, but that’s a least a quick sketch of theoretical design to allow science and theology to reinforce one another.

No dispute about any of that. The question at issue is what to do about it? Specifically, what are the most likely to succeed change-making levers?

If you want detail-oriented geopolitical analysis and forecasting, we can go there. But given we are in what Pogany calls “chaotic transition”, intellectual modesty about picking likely winners and losers is not evasive at all - it’s what any prudent analyst would practice.

I’m in a spiritual practice group facilitated by the local Baha’i community. I’m not Baha’i, but the group is open to anyone, and as it plays out, discussions freely range across multiple religions or no religion at all. The group functions by seeding discussions with a selection of readings from various Baha’i sources, and then anyone can say what they feel in relation to the text.

Anyway, after over a year of this, I’ve become consistently impressed by the general prescience and practical insight of multiple Baha’i teachers who appear to have seen current matters coming quite awhile ago. I also like that Baha’i favors action in the world, versus flying off to some spiritual heaven while the current world burns below. The tone and balance your post above is seeking regarding spiritual practice in a time of crisis is generally embodied and reflected in this community of diverse people from all walks of life. Intellectually, the group (me included) aligns pretty well with teachings such as those in the article linked below. But I believe the emotional reinforcement of face-to-face community is vital for the spiritual practice itself.

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Reflecting on @RobertBunge quoting @Justin

I’m happy with the first five as framed with reasonable objectivity.

But “utterly dependent”? Dependent on your assumptions and point of view, I’d say. The term “utterly”, to me, suggests that we have opinion coming in here. Nothing wrong with opinion, provided it is owned. I would have no problem at all saying that the current global food system uses (however much) fossil fuels. You could probably do something similar for logistics, though I’m not sure how.

“The planet’s carrying capacity” – and fair enough, as you give this as an opinion of the authors mentioned – doesn’t this depend on several assumptions? I’m not saying I disagree with those assumptions, just that they are assumptions that can be (and are) called into question, particularly via a techno-optimistic or techno-solutionist approach.

I know I’m being picky about this, but I do think it matters to distinguish carefully between what is generally accepted as “fact” and what is interpretation. There’s a similar distinction in NVC — nonviolent communication.

I must say I feel something is missing before embarking on answering questions like “what are the most likely to succeed change-making levers?” Or are folk agreeing that what we need to do here is to have a kind of beauty contest between different proffered “solutions”? (Including what some would see as a non-solution: collapse will happen, what should we do in its aftermath?) Somehow I feel that’s been going on already too long, and we need a different approach.

Do people share my sense of something lacking, before we are wholeheartedly able to work in harmony (my phrase; or if you prefer, cooperating, collaborating, whatever, or just not interfering with or undermining each other)? If we aren’t lacking anything, why does it feel difficult? Or if we are lacking something, what might that be?

Robert, I’ve appreciated your responses—they’re thoughtful, well-referenced, and clearly coming from a mind that values both depth and structure. The effort you’ve put into integrating systems theory, history, UTOK, and metamodern approaches is commendable. These frameworks offer a way to think across domains, and that’s increasingly necessary.

I’d like to respond to your thoughts in the same spirit—constructively, with an eye toward building common ground, even where we may differ.

On the topic of visualization without evidence, you’re right that much of cognition does function through prediction, modeling, and imagination. That’s the architecture of how we perceive reality in real-time. But I’d draw a distinction here: in a context of cascading ecological crisis, visualization without tethering to evidence can become a kind of soft denial. It’s not about discarding imagination—it about ensnaring imagination is in dialogue with the actual signals emerging from the world. The danger isn’t hope—it’s untethered hope.

I also appreciate your acknowledgment of the realities we face—CO2 levels, biodiversity loss, oceanic collapse, food system fragility. That shared basis matters immensely. And your point about “what are the most likely to succeed levers?” is a good one. I’ll offer my view—not as a final answer, but as part of a shared exploration.

First, I think the most important lever is dismantling the civilizational illusions we still unconsciously carry—particularly around separation, control, and the idea that technology will save us without transforming our relationship to life itself. Those illusions are inherited and deeply embedded, not just cognitively but institutionally.

Second, I believe we have much to learn from traditional and indigenous knowledge systems—not by lifting their forms into modern use, but by remembering how they emerged: in deep, reciprocal relationship with land, time, and place. It’s less about content than it is about posture—humility, slowness, entanglement.

Third, I’d suggest a shift from asking what is “likely to succeed” to asking what must be done regardless of outcome—that is, a turn toward moral coherence. Not moralism, but a grounded commitment to act in fidelity to what we know—even if the arc is long, or the hour late. Collapse is not a singular event, after all. It’s a process, uneven, and already underway for many. There’s still much that can be saved, even in the unravelling.

Your reflection on hope struck me—particularly the way you framed it in relation to social capital and relational positioning. I think that’s true, and honest. But I wonder whether that kind of hope is available to most of the world. For many, collapse is not a psychological condition—it’s material, daily, and accelerating. So perhaps we need a kind of hope that isn’t rooted in comfort, but in courage. One that’s born not from position, but from perception.

As for your last message linking to Finding Hope in a Time of Crisis - BahaiTeachings.org, thank you for sharing this. It is the kind of initiative I am pleasantly surprised to find, and one I will very likely be engaging further with.

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What, exactly, do we “already know”, Justin? Or do you already know?
I’ve already pointed out the points you mentioned that I would agree belong to common knowledge, and which I see as dependent on interpretation or perspective — the ones that as far as I can see are disputed: not everyone knows them.

If you think you know, please set out what you believe in detail, so that it can be examined, stress-tested, and assessed for fitness, not only as a plausible response to your assessment of the current whatever-crisis, but as a programme around which people will be ready and willing to join. In my recent experience around 2R and Life Itself, I have found plenty of assent to vague general principles, but no agreement as to what to prioritise in terms of response in action. Maybe that doesn’t matter?

If you do have a plan of action, how do you plan to persuade people to join you in that action? If you don’t have a plan of action, where is that going to come from?

What I am personally trying to focus on are the preconditions for people to be able to come together on coherent and effective plans of actions. I know others disagree and want to lead from the front, boldly declaring their vision and hoping that others will follow them rather than the increasing cacophony of discordant other voices, but my purpose is towards regeneration of relationship, which will allow common actions that we do not yet know for sure to emerge.

Sincerely, good luck to those who want to lead from the front of knowing what to do already. I will only offer critique if I see danger ahead. Go ahead: shout Fire! and see who responds and joins you. It is not my way because I have lost faith – or maybe never had faith? – in that kind of leadership, believing as I do that it belongs to an outdated paradigm, a culture past its live-by date. That’s my belief. I may be mistaken.

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Simon,

You ask what I “already know.” Fair. Let me set the ground plainly.

I know we are in ecological overshoot—measurably, observably, and systemically.
I know CO₂ levels are higher than they’ve been in 3 million years.
I know we are in a Sixth Mass Extinction, accelerating daily.
I know the global food system is dependent—not just associated, but dependent—on fossil fuels.
I know the Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average, and that methane feedbacks are real, not speculative.
I know that industrial civilization cannot persist on a finite planet under exponential extraction.

None of these are spiritual positions. They are not visions. They are not beliefs. They are conditions.
They are already happening—whether we gather around them or not. Now, you ask for a plan. But here, I think we differ—not just tactically, but ontologically.

You ask what I’ll do to get people to follow. I say: I’m not trying to lead. I’m trying to tell the truth, in a time when truth has become inconvenient, softened, and endlessly deferred in favour of frameworks that let us avoid the grief of contact.

You say you don’t believe in that kind of leadership. Fair. But then what do you believe in? Because regeneration without reckoning is theatre. And community without consequence is just choreography.

You say go ahead—shout Fire! and see who gathers.
I already have. Some have gathered. Most don’t.
But I would rather gather with those who smell the smoke than wait for a perfect consensus of people still asking if “burning” is the right word.

You believe that model is past its “live-by date.”
I think the only thing past its date is the idea that we can keep delaying reckoning until the process feels harmonious enough to begin.

The Earth will not wait for ontological harmony.

That said, I do hear the spirit beneath your words—the longing to regenerate relationship, not just respond to crisis. And I agree: whatever comes next must emerge not through domination, but through deep listening, mutuality, and trust. If your path is to hold space for that emergence, I respect it. We need many roles in a time like this. I only ask that the space not delay the naming, and the listening not become a substitute for the seeing. Harmony is beautiful. But sometimes, the music only begins once we’ve stopped pretending the building isn’t burning.

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Justin, thanks, I honour in particular your desire to tell the truth. Speaking truth to power is a calling that lives very well in the circles I frequent.

My questions are around those who do not yet accept those facts as true. Do you have, as some people have, some target percentage of people who need to be convinced of the facts for the world order to change? It’s an interesting view, for sure, but with present politics it seems to me that it needs to be over 50%. If you believe it is less than that, what’s your theory of change from less than 50% to real systemic change? And whatever percentage – one could say that convincing the 1% elite would be enough – what seem to be realistic ways to change the minds of those people?

I guess you can see what I’m saying: speaking the truth is very noble, I respect it utterly, but for social-political-economic change to happen people need to be persuaded. I’m not saying that I have any kind of privileged knowledge on how to persuade those requisite people, but I do sense that you see the honesty with which I hold the opinion that regenerating relationship is a plausible precursor to shifting opinion more widely. I have a similar take on writing books. A very noble activity, and I wish the best for book writers, but surely the challenge is to get people to read them and take them in?

Maybe I’m inviting you to apply your own reasoning to yourself? Could one see telling the truth as deferring the moment when one plans and takes action? What is “contact” here?

And telling truth that is not listened to; writing books that are not read; what is that? Theatre may indeed be politically persuasive. Constellation work can open up profound personal change. How do you know whether community has consequence or not? What’s your epistemology here?

I don’t appreciate the implication that I am waiting for perfect consensus around the meaning of words. I’m not. We try to name our truth with whatever words we have available at the time. Genuine communication of meaning is a continuing, inevitable struggle. On this, if you like, read someone much more eloquent than me: T S Eliot: here and here and here.

So, to end, thank you for your respect for my holding space for emergence. I respect your sense of urgency for naming; your burning desire to help people see though pretence, whether their own or of others.

Fare forward!

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Simon,

Thank you. I appreciate the tone and generosity in this message. And yes, I do feel that you honor the role of truth-speaking, even if we diverge on how it lands, and what comes after.

You raise a fair question—what happens if the truth is not heard? If the books are not read? If the words flicker and vanish before they root? And you’re right, I don’t place my faith in numbers. I don’t believe 50% agreement is a prerequisite for change. Nor do I believe that persuading the 1% will initiate anything but the preservation of their own comfort.

I don’t believe systems change because enough people are convinced.
I believe systems change because reality asserts itself—economically, ecologically, energetically—and societies either respond or fracture. Truth, in this frame, is not a rhetorical device—it’s orientation. A way of not becoming lost in the fog when the walls begin to groan.

So no—I don’t see truth-telling as deferral. I see it as the first act of fidelity. To say: This is what I see. This is what I will not pretend not to see. Not in pursuit of mass persuasion, but in pursuit of coherence. As it stands, I believe that total collapse of human civilisation is beyond doubt. This is a belief, not a fact. Others could contend that it may collapse, but that the collapse won’t be so large-scale; others still may argue that collapse can be avoided, on the grounds of some technological development, or similar. But, I share this belief to address your question: what is the aim sought to be achieved? Firstly, I think collapse is not only inevitable but also just. We are not talking about some benevolent structure here. We are talking about a system that has enslaved, oppressed and exploited its ways through the centuries. Granted, in collapsing, there will be untold death and destruction. And yet there remains a hope - a mere ember - of something arising thereafter. Something positive, but in order for that to happen then it must not repeat or carry on the same mistakes, and illusions (as noted).

As for community and consequence—how do I know? I don’t. But I don’t think knowledge in the scientific sense is the only measure. Sometimes, consequence is known the way a root knows soil. Or the way silence follows certain kinds of naming. There are truths that rewire a room, even if no one claps.

I don’t require agreement on words. But I do require that words point to something real, not serve as veils for delay. That’s where I think your holding space is valuable—if it stays porous to grief, porous to reckoning. If emergence means anything, it must mean emerging from illusion into contact.

My friend has mentioned several times about attending Constellations. Your message was timed with another reminder from her - so I will, in the spirit of synchronicity, attend.
I’d recommend to you also native ceremonies that use shamanism techniques. They may not have any relevance to what we’ve been discussing, but I do think some could help shed a light on the nature of illusion - or indeed reality.

So thank you. I suspect we’re different creatures on the same floor of a burning house, using different tools to stay human.

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To my way of thinking, being overly precise about agreeing on the finer details of the metacrisis, the polycrisis, the Anthropocene, the chaotic transition, or is rather time wasting. I’d say thinkers like Daniel Schmachtenberger and Nate Hagens have laid down enough data and analysis to convincingly demonstrate that something has to give. So I’ll forgive a bit of rhetorical excess in the area of problem diagnosis. However, such excess becomes far less forgivable when it stands in the way of constructive action planning. That’s when theoretical pencils need sharpened and the most rigorous sort of analysis is most needed.

Yes, visualization without tethering would be problematic indeed, but of course I never suggested any such thing! What I pointed out is that “evidence for the future” is entirely evidence about the past, with trends projected into the future. (Unless one has a literal time machine, of course). The required “tethering” for future prognostication is basically to read a lot of history, source it from differing enough perspectives to cancel out theoretical or ideological bias, and then theorize as best as possible about what might happen next based on how past trends might interact in future cycles.

Here is an outstanding example of how different trends might collide, which I needed to address in my information technology text. Ray Kurzweil, on the strength of past exponential gains for all manner of information technologies, projects Artificial Super Intelligence for the fairly near future, with wireless nanobots injected into both human brains and bloodstreams, and effectively unlimited renewable energy thanks to nanotechnology applied to solar panels. Kurzweil has a decently good track record of predicting many technical trends, sometimes decades in advance. Nate Hagens, of course, thinks Kurzweil’s views (and those of other techno-optimists) are nonsense, because of biospheric hard limits and supply chain limits to solar and other so-called “renewable” energy sources.

Neither Kurzweil nor Hagens are anything other than well-informed and very intelligent. Both marshal tons of data and tons of maths. Neither are easily dismissed. So how will it all play out, eventually? I doubt anyone right now really knows for sure. For what it’s worth, my bets are more placed with Hagens, but I’m keepimg a very sharp eye on the technical side of the house as well.

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You say “illusions”. I say “culture”. Pot-A-toe, Pot-AH-toe. Either way, it’s Vervaeke’s relevance realization, which points in the direction of what to do about it.

I’ll confess to being neo-Kantian, along the lines of Habermas and quite a few others. We can’t perceive the world at all apart from some pre-perceptual framing. Of course, per-perceptual frames are constructed through life’s developmental course (perhaps on top of some neurological pre-programming - as per Chomsky’s thinking on innate linguistic structures). Vervaeke lately is quite adapt at detailing how such framing operates, and critically, how it might be transformed in the direction of wisdom.

My recent insight, in the context of how environmental economist Pogany invoked Gebser’s rather mystical notion of “integral consciousness”, is that materially grounded social collapse may give large and growing segments of the human population a performative boost in the task of relevance realization reframing. Why? Cognitive dissonance. As previously reliable cause-and-effect associations break down, people start grasping at any available straw to construct a workable worldview in their newly chaotic and unpredictable environments. Habermas devoted a big thick book (Also a History of Philosophy, vol. 1) documenting how this exact thing happened all over the civilized world in the early Iron Age, resulting in what we now call the Axial Age religions and philosophies. The previous mythic order lost sense-making power. Newer abstractions (God, the Idea, Dharma, the Dao) emerged to fill the void.

Mutatis mutandis, it strikes me a similar process is occurring right now. Sense-making in chaos has been in high gear since Trump’s latest term began a couple months ago, although that recent burst of chaotic unraveling simply underlines any number of trends that have been in the works for several decades now. The remainder of this century won’t be like any previous cycles. We need to make meaning all the more urgently now, and for all the most practical of reasons. All that practical meaning-making, across most if not all social strata, potentially fuels a variety of visionary ideas about personal, social, and cultural transformation.

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Just connect the dots. Baháʼí is no elitist operation. Their social initiatives work at a social base level all over the world. A non-Baháʼí point of comparison might be the Buddhist- or Hindu-based Sarvodaya communities in Sri Lanka or India. The key to this working at a village level or in urban lower class neighborhoods appears to be shared devotional practice (of one sort or another). This is also very consistent with Habermas’s late-career thinking about how ritual and shared pre-rational meaning is needed to ground the rational at the level of the public sphere.

My takeaway hypothesis for 2R purposes, is that intentional regenerative communities (or pick better adjectives) will need a ritual, devotional, spiritual core to function properly. Those rituals might involve updates to particular Axial or indigenous traditions. Or they might sample a variety of sources to weave something new. In any case, repetitive practice for social-emotional bonding (the root meaning of “religion”) appears indispensable for navigating the meaning crisis, not to mention the larger structural and environmental crises that frame and fuel it.

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Thank you for bringing Bauwens to my attention. His work had completely passed me by until now, and I find it mind-opening.

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After going through a variety of Metamodern authors (Hanzi, Lene, etc.) although I liked a lot about MM, it felt a little loose and heuristic for my tastes, especially on the critical topic of cultural evolution. Why do cultures go from stage to stage and how does that align with different patterns of governance or economic relations? I wanted more structural views with mechanisms clearly identifiable. My first move in that direction was Habermas, but then Bauwens came in, and very importantly, Bauwens’s reference list (including especially Pogany and Karatani).

One thing about Bauwens is, his view is not just the liminal web speaking only to the liminal web. There’s honest to goodness academic scholarship behind his civilizational thinking. Really, at this point, I don’t know if my preferred ideas really are MM anymore (and people can’t seem to agree on what MM is anyway), but whatever my ideas are they lean into Bauwens, his sources, and quite a few others I’ve gathered that fit the overall sensibility. Describing, more than naming, I’d say that sensibility is long-term, global, structural, and process-centric.

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I need time to go into this more thoroughly, but it sounds right and feels right to me. I would just add ‘relationality’ as an additional, discrete aspect of reality.

If you could let me have your email, I’d be happy to send you a paper I am giving at a forthcoming academic symposium on “Building Ecologies of Hope”. It explains why I say that.

No quarrel there! My underlying meta-framework is essentially systems theory, which models entities and relationships. At the human social level, of course, relationships are everything. The notion of the “individual” as a social primitive, although common in certain strands of Anglo-American philosophy, is borderline nonsensical if viewed through lenses such as early childhood development or really any anthropology at all.

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OK, I can’t stay out of this. I have two contributions to this discussion.

First:

First edition:

This book was given to me as a gift shortly after I came out of a psychiatric hospital, aged 20, having experienced a total mental breakdown after becoming collapse-aware in a world where absolutely nobody understood what I was trying to tell them. At the time I wasn’t capable of understanding it (Eliot’s book).

Second, my new website went live yesterday. I am not advertising it widely and will not do so until the new book is published. I intend it to be read.

Here is an article on the new website which explains exactly why 2R needs to accept collapse, and why people who have accepted collapse need to start believing 2R is possible. In other words, I think you two (@asimong and @Justin) need each other. And I suspect I could also help, given that this is 100% my ballpark. Although it is also the reason I don’t really belong here, and I need to keep that in mind or there will be more unwanted “tension”. How can I not be combative about this? I have been “challenging” the world for 35 years. I am not going to stop now, especially given that I’ve finally figured out what it is that I need to communicate. I was right; everybody else was wrong.

2R has an incomplete vision of a better future but no theory of change.

Collapse-aware people have a profound theory of change in which they have total belief, but no vision of a better future.

7: The Collapse of Civilisation and the Second Renaissance - The Ecocivilisation Diaries

Is it possible to complete the incomplete theory of change to be found at r/collapse by completing the incomplete vision of a new cultural paradigm to be found at 2R? Is it possible that what begins as the collapse of civilisation could lead to a second renaissance? Or, could it be possible for a second renaissance to occur during the process of collapse?

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Hi Geoff. Yes, and to be honest it caught me somewhat by surprise that collapse awareness isn’t already built into 2R. The whitepaper gives that impression but on further analysis and with conversations here I can see that’s not the case.

Yet I’d say that collapse acceptance doesn’t automatically rule out a resurgence. Rupert Read has written of this, noting a ‘phoenix’ model as one of three possibilities.

What I like about 2R is its emphasis on the cognitive side - how we see the world. Shifting this foundation is key to determining what (if anything) comes after collapse and, importantly, whether it will just be a fragmented echo of the same system or something splendidly new (or a reiteration of the very old, depending on your perspective).

Collapse forums have occasional consideration on this topic but for the most part they lie between practical prepping and coming to terms with collapse as an individual.

So there’s definitely a gap to be filled.