Beyond the Great Anomaly (of fossil fuel energy)

General
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https://beyondthisbriefanomaly.org/ is a blog of Josh Floyd looking at the future of energy.

Beyond this Brief Anomaly
A systemic inquiry into energy and society—by Josh Floyd

Interesting – and generally realistic and hence pessimistic – work on the energy transition.

Summary of his work in Inquiry arc: 2017-2020 | Beyond this Brief Anomaly (blog seems to end in 2020)

Classic realist-pessimist

Many studies have concluded that the current global economy can transition from fossil fuels to be powered entirely by renewable energy. While supporting such transition, we critique analysis purporting to conclusively demonstrate feasibility. Deep uncertainties remain about whether renewables can maintain, let alone grow, the range and scale of energy services presently provided by fossil fuels. The more optimistic renewable energy studies rely upon assumptions that may be theoretically or technically plausible, but which remain highly uncertain when real-world practicalities are accounted for. This places investigation of energy-society futures squarely in the domain of post-normal science, implying the need for greater ‘knowledge humility’ when framing and interpreting the findings from quantitative modelling exercises conducted to investigate energy futures. Greater appreciation for the limits of what we can know via such techniques reveals ‘energy descent’ as a plausible post-carbon scenario. Given the fundamental dependence of all economic activity on availability of energy in appropriate forms at sufficient rates, profound changes to dominant modes of production and consumption may be required, a view marginalised when more techno-optimistic futures are assumed. Viewing this situation through the lens of ‘post-normal times’ opens avenues for response that can better support societies in navigating viable futures.

Wrote a book in 2018: Carbon Civilisation and the Energy Descent Future: Life Beyond this Brief Anomaly

I’m very pleased to announce the release Carbon Civilisation and the Energy Descent Future: Life Beyond this Brief Anomaly, co-authored with Sam Alexander.

From the back cover blurb:

Carbon civilisation is powered predominately by finite fossil fuels and with each passing day it becomes harder to increase or even maintain current supply. Our one-off fossil energy inheritance is but a brief anomaly in the evolution of the human story, a momentary energy spike from the perspective of deep time.

Today humanity faces the dual crises of fossil fuel depletion and climate change, both of which are consequences of the modern world’s fundamental reliance on the energy abundance provided by fossil energy sources. Can renewable energy replace the fossil energy foundations of carbon civilisation?

This book examines these issues and presents a narrative linking energy and society that maintains we should be preparing for renewable futures neither of energy abundance nor scarcity, but rather energy sufficiency. For industrial societies, this means navigating energy descent futures.

2015 paper on world energy trends

Pretty good basic intro.

Previous & Related work

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From an entirely different bottom up perspective, my family and I have moved to an 100% off-grid property. ( unless you include internet connection) We are proactively “practicing” the collapse that will inevitably come.

Much lower fuel consumption is both possible and enjoyable.

We demonstrate how to thrive without being on the grid.

But what is alive for us is that there is a need for energy, but we are pointlessly squandering it.

Yes, it is enjoyable to live in low carbon and closer relationship with the natural world, and reduce our power needs, but we still need hospitals, roads and labs, and fuel for agriculture and essential goods transport.

Life without those things would be brutal. We need to learn to love frugality, to delight in the simple life, and get our priorities straight.

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Do you have a (clear?) vision of what the collapse might look like? I was reading about the doctrine of undercover intelligence agents - they advocate against “digging in” in the environment of diminishing resources. Instead - they do risk assessment and make decision to temporarily (or more permanently) leave.

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It’s a bit grim and challenging. I follow Gem Bendall and the Deep Adaptation crew on likely collapse scenarios. I think it will look quite different in different places, and be very variable based on whatever mitigations we enact. Eventually though, it’s possible most or all life in Earth could be lost.

In the shorter time scale I imagine the breakdown of the utility grids is highly likely, and fuel for vehicles will be in short supply, and mass migration from desertification areas a certainty. Economic recessions will rage. Stressed populations veer towards totalitarian regimes. No doubt conflict will arise over ever reducing resources, crops will start to fail as the soil loses its structure and fertility, and extreme weather disrupts seasonal rains to floods/drought scenarios.

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Where is there to temporarily or permanently leave to? The polycrisis is global. Perhaps we are not speaking to the same issues?

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@Gen would you be up for booting a dedicated topic for sharing more - i think talking through (and collecting) these scenarios would be quite helpful.

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@rufuspollock do you mean a new thread, or something more?

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Hopefully, it won’t be like a grid that gets uniformly electrified with the current of the same intensity, giving us a mortal shock. It will be a process and there will be a geographical spread of localised manifestations of crisis. To be able to re-boot the planet, we’ll need to survive first. I was merely talking about two different strategies for survival - one is stay where you are and dig in, the other one is move.

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I meant a dedicated thread to start with – I imagine it could then extend into a multi thread conglomeration.