Disrupting Nash: A Triadic Temporal Model of Revolutionary Emergence

:firecracker: Disrupting Nash: A Triadic Temporal Model of Revolutionary Emergence


:wrench: The Core Problem

Nash Equilibrium predicts that under severe oppression—where rebellion means death—no rational actor will rebel.
Yet history consistently violates this prediction:

  • :poland: Warsaw Ghetto
  • :china: Tiananmen Square
  • :globe_showing_europe_africa: Arab Spring

Why?

Because Nash assumes:

  • :brain: Fixed preferences
  • :locked_with_key: Isolated agents
  • :chart_decreasing: Rational optimization

It cannot account for the transformation of identity under shared suffering.


:mantelpiece_clock: The Triadic Temporal Framework

Human volition unfolds across three temporal fields that Nash excludes:

Temporal Field Description Symbol
t₁ – Impulse Time Somatic activation, pre-rational instinct, felt urgency :fire:
t₂ – Relational Time Trust formation, shared recognition, conspiratorial networks :spider_web:
t₃ – Mythic Time Sacred values, archetypal identity, ancestral memory :dove:

These are not separate moments, but interwoven dimensions of time that shape action.


:abacus: Volitional Transformation Model

:input_symbols: Core Equation

Vi(t)=α⋅Ii(t1)+β⋅Ri(t2)+γ⋅Di(t3)−CiV_i(t) = \alpha \cdot I_i(t_1) + \beta \cdot R_i(t_2) + \gamma \cdot D_i(t_3) - C_iVi​(t)=α⋅Ii​(t1​)+β⋅Ri​(t2​)+γ⋅Di​(t3​)−Ci​

Where:

  • Vi(t)V_i(t)Vi​(t) = Volitional potential for transformative action
  • Ii(t1),Ri(t2),Di(t3)I_i(t_1), R_i(t_2), D_i(t_3)Ii​(t1​),Ri​(t2​),Di​(t3​) = Strengths of impulse, relational, and mythic fields
  • α,β,γ\alpha, \beta, \gammaα,β,γ = Attunement weights (context-dependent)
  • CiC_iCi​ = Cost of rebellion (e.g., punishment, death)

:white_check_mark: Threshold Condition

Vi(t)>0V_i(t) > 0Vi​(t)>0

If this condition is met, rational compliance breaks—transformation becomes possible.


:busts_in_silhouette: Population Dynamics

x˙=x(1−x)(Vˉ−C)\dot{x} = x(1 - x)(\bar{V} - C)x˙=x(1−x)(Vˉ−C)

  • xxx = Proportion of population in resistance
  • Vˉ\bar{V}Vˉ = Average volitional potential
  • CCC = Average cost of rebellion

A modified logistic model: not driven by replication, but by temporal convergence.


:brain: How This Disrupts Nash

:one: Dynamic Preferences

Nash assumes static utility.
This model tracks mutating preference structures:

  • :fire: t₁: “I want safety” → “I cannot bear this”
  • :spider_web: t₂: “I am alone” → “We are together”
  • :dove: t₃: “Death is worst” → “Dishonor is worse than death”

:two: Network Effects

Nash prohibits communication.
But t₂ enables whisper-networks, transforming the game structure itself.


:three: Phase Transitions

Nash assumes linearity.
The triadic model reveals threshold-driven ruptures:

  • :balance_scale: Low suffering: Equilibrium holds
  • :handshake: Moderate suffering: Trust builds (t₂)
  • :volcano: High suffering: Myth ignites (t₃) → Revolution

:four: Emergent Identity

New “we” forms under pressure:

  • Individual actors dissolve into resistance mythos
  • Suffering becomes glue for collective identity
  • Sacred commitments override fear-based logic

:bar_chart: Mathematical Implications

Revolution follows criticality dynamics:

Prevolution∝exp⁡(β[∑iVi(t)−N⋅Cthreshold])P_{\text{revolution}} \propto \exp\left(\beta \left[ \sum_i V_i(t) - N \cdot C_{\text{threshold}} \right] \right)Prevolution​∝exp(β[i∑​Vi​(t)−N⋅Cthreshold​])

A small increase in volitional potential can trigger phase transitions—from silence to uprising.


:sparkles: The Central Insight

Nash describes mechanical systems—predictable, closed, lifeless.
The triadic model reveals living systems—adaptive, emergent, relational.

When :fire: impulse (t₁), :spider_web: relation (t₂), and :dove: myth (t₃) converge, they create a field intensity that exceeds cost and shatters equilibrium.

  • The prisoner’s dilemma dissolves when prisoners become comrades
  • The oppression game ends when subjects become revolutionaries
  • Rationality gives way to meta-rational commitment to life, dignity, and transformation

:cyclone: Conclusion

Nash Equilibrium functions only when identity is fixed.

But identity under oppression is unstable, recursive, and mythically charged.

The triadic temporal model reveals how suffering becomes soil for:

  • :seedling: Volitional emergence
  • :fire: Sacred resistance
  • :dove: Non-linear transformation

Revolution is not a strategy within the game—
It is the moment the game itself mutates beyond Nash’s mathematical reach.

sorry the LaTex is not formatting well here, I’ll see if I can find a workaround and edit.

1 Like

I’d be interested in seeing the formulas!

This seems like an interesting dynamic model, though I would see it more as complementing than disrupting Nash. Nash equilibrium usually defined in terms of one-shot games with fixed payoff matrices, e.g. in terms of the fact that the strategy of all players is the best it can be, given the payoff matrices and considering the possible actions of other players. So it does not even attempt to represent a dynamic situation in which payoff matrices themselves may be changing. Perhaps sometimes the notion of ‘equilibrium’ is misunderstood as an equilibrium of dynamic systems in this way, but that’s not how it’s actually defined.

While the complexity science approach your proposing is indeed very useful in understanding the system dynamics, there’s a simpler model that can also be helpful, namely to think of the payoff matrices in a Nash-type game as themselves changing - e.g. as a result of trust formation, shared recognition or conspiratorial networks. When the payoff matrices change, so does the nash equilibirum, and this can move us from prisoner’s dilemma type games to stag hunt games that have cooperation as nash equilibria. This framing useful in pointing to the importance of changes to payoff matrices - changes that can result from changes to system incentives, psychological development, or community formation.

A link to the equations in LaTex. This is what I have so far, actually pared down from where I had over reached and over complicated : Notion