Exit Interview

Embodied Knowing
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Yesterday I had my exit interview (on Zoom) with my dean. She chose that occasion to read back to me the 14 page strategic document I shared with her about 5 minutes after assuming her administrative role in the spring of 2023. The gist of the document was “I plan to retire in under 6 months, here are the 97 millions things I do around here, good luck replacing that!” Then I offered 3 strategic options, two of which were horrifically bad and the third of which was what I obviously wanted. My dean went for option #4 - talk me into sticking around - which she managed to keep in play for a further 3 years. During that time, I got everything I wanted off of option #3, so win-win. The remarkable thing about the document my dean read back to me yesterday was how spot-on I was about the great majority of the strategic challenges facing the college in 2023 and how the plans I suggested to deal with all that were the plans we actually followed. Given that track record, my dean asked for one more favor on my way out the door? Could I author a paper on what to do next?

Here is that draft: The Bonus Chapter.docx - Google Docs

The difference this time around is I very much know what I do not know. In 2023, the world order hung by a thread. Now it has clearly unraveled. Different times call for different measures. Today, there is no “plan”. There is only the ability to tack against the wind. The plan today is to make it through till tomorrow. Repeat process. Keep at at. See where it leads.

In the Bonus Chapter I tie together a variety of threads of general interest to forum participants here. Like why I both do and do not care about metatheory. Like will AI eat our brains, or worse? Like why human development needs altered states and physical experiences. As a strategic planning document, this does approximately what Rite of Spring did for classical tonality. Love it or hate it, the intended audience can scarcely ignore it!

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The Big Tent Paradox
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Excited to take a look.

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The essay above aims at engagement and entertainment value, more than structure and precision. There is actually a much more prosaic business model I aim to set up, based in the ideas of the Ch 20 (on futures forecasting) discussed in the essay.

In outline of Ch 20 -

  • the future is fundamentally unpredictable.
  • historical pattern matching and projection is the best we can do.
  • when multiple trends are projected to collide, trend reversals, cycles, chaos, and non-linearity should be expected.
  • quantitative and qualitative methods both apply to forecasting.
  • In the AI vs human comparison on pattern matching, AI will shine best in the quantitative.
  • Human intuition gives us the edge on the qualitative.
  • A well-rounded futurism program might include:
    • identify the most salient patterns
    • trend project as if current context will continue for each trend
    • identify potential collision zones in which trends will interfere with each others’ contexts
    • use qualitative methods (expert opinion, Delphi, wisdom of crowds, etc.) to imagine scenarios for when the non-linear overrides the linear.
    • map out potential risks/rewards for the most plausible scenarios
    • hedge bets and adjust current action accordingly

The business idea is I want to train students in the model above, and catalyze a consultancy facing the non-profit world. My hope is to launch the program and then fade out of it, letting the younger generations handle the operational side of everything.

In the Ch 20 that gave rise to this model, I basically survey all the usual metacrisis issus, so if anyone wants to apply this to typical 2R macro concerns, have at it!