The essay above aims at engagement and entertainment value, more than structure and precision. There is actually a much more prosaic business model I aim to set up, based in the ideas of the Ch 20 (on futures forecasting) discussed in the essay.
In outline of Ch 20 -
- the future is fundamentally unpredictable.
- historical pattern matching and projection is the best we can do.
- when multiple trends are projected to collide, trend reversals, cycles, chaos, and non-linearity should be expected.
- quantitative and qualitative methods both apply to forecasting.
- In the AI vs human comparison on pattern matching, AI will shine best in the quantitative.
- Human intuition gives us the edge on the qualitative.
- A well-rounded futurism program might include:
- identify the most salient patterns
- trend project as if current context will continue for each trend
- identify potential collision zones in which trends will interfere with each others’ contexts
- use qualitative methods (expert opinion, Delphi, wisdom of crowds, etc.) to imagine scenarios for when the non-linear overrides the linear.
- map out potential risks/rewards for the most plausible scenarios
- hedge bets and adjust current action accordingly
The business idea is I want to train students in the model above, and catalyze a consultancy facing the non-profit world. My hope is to launch the program and then fade out of it, letting the younger generations handle the operational side of everything.
In the Ch 20 that gave rise to this model, I basically survey all the usual metacrisis issus, so if anyone wants to apply this to typical 2R macro concerns, have at it!