The real root cause of the crisis humanity is currently facing

This is an excerpt from my forthcoming book. It comes very near the beginning, because it is absolutely fundamental.

The biological growth imperative

A fundamental property of all known life forms is a drive to grow and expand – to increase in size, reproduce, occupy more space and/or consume more resources. This process is competitive, and it is the main driving force of both ecological and evolutionary processes. Its flipside is death and extinction – the only way it is possible for new organisms to flourish and new species to evolve is for others – the old, the weak and the losers in the grand competition of life – to die and go extinct. I will call this property “the biological growth imperative”.

Much more rarely in the history of life, something else happens: a new sort of co-operation is established between individual organisms to create a super-organism (relative to the individuals it is composed of). An early example of this “mutualism” was when the individual micro-organisms that were the ancestors of what we call cell organelles got together to produce the first eukaryotic cell (a cell with a nucleus and a variety of other internal structures, rather than just biological bag of genetic material). In order to do this, each of the organelles had to find a way to override the growth imperative: they had to “learn” how to stop growing and reproducing, unless instructed to do so by the nucleus when the whole cell is ready to divide.

It happened again when the first multicellular organisms appeared. Multicellular organisms are a colony of genetically identical cells, even though there are many different types of cell with a huge variety of purposes and physical forms. That this happened at all is an example of the mind-boggling power of evolution by natural selection – an extraordinary feat of biological engineering. Again, the biggest obstacle to assembling a viable super-organism from its component parts was the biological growth imperative. Every cell in a multi-cellular organism is the last in an unbroken series of cells stretching right back to the first single-celled ancestor, every one of which divided, and yet somehow it “knows” that it must specialise and (in most cases) stop dividing. The complexity of this process of overriding the biological growth imperative is revealed by the plethora of ways it can malfunction, whenever the cell “forgets” to stop dividing. We call this cancer.

The next major layer of complexity occurred in termites about 150 million years ago, and in the hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps) at least eight times since then [Ref 1]. Each cell in an insect is a collaboration of organelles. Each insect is a collaboration of genetically identical but morphologically diverse cells. A colony of eusocial insects is a collaboration of individuals which functions as a single super-organism. In order to achieve this, their genetics had to change such that each individual that labours for the colony does so on behalf of its own genes, even though the workers don’t get to reproduce. So again we have an example of an additional layer of co-operation, which was only made possible by most of the individual units that comprise the super-organism finding a way to over-ride the biological growth imperative.

Something similar has happened in social mammals, such as wolves. Wolf packs are led by a dominant pair, and usually they are the only ones who reproduce. Other members of the pack help to raise the young, who share at least some of their genes. The system would not work if all the adults followed the imperative, so most of them don’t have any right to reproduce. If they want to do that then they must establish a new pack in a new territory.

Now compare to humans. Civilisation is another example of individual organisms co-operating to form a super-organism, but in terms of evolutionary history it is both new and revolutionary. It appeared only very recently and is unlike anything that has previously happened (to any species, not just humans). Our previous state of social organisation was tribalism – which was more like the wolf pack, though with more complex reproductive arrangements, than it is to what has happened since. There were also loose collaborations between larger groups – a sort of proto-civilisation that had not yet run into the problems that emerge when you stop being nomadic hunter-gatherers. [footnote: see The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow (2021).] In human tribal systems these internal relationships are regulated by social rules, the whole system having evolved relatively slowly as an integral part of human evolution more generally. Civilisation is on a completely different scale to this, and has developed much more rapidly. The neolithic revolution took several thousand years, but almost immediately after humans invented the form of social and physical organisation we call “cities”, they became home to tens of thousands of people. Bigger was better, right from the start. [Footnote: see appendix 1.]

These new super-organisms started out as temple/city states, then expanded into great empires, and now they are sovereign states. Unfortunately, this revolutionary evolutionary advance is still in the experimental stage and suffers from a major problem which has brought countless civilisations down in the past and now directly threatens our own: we are yet to find a satisfactory way to over-ride the biological growth imperative. We haven’t done so at the level of global civilisation and sovereign states – the history of human civilisation is the history of war between groups of humans, usually over territory and access to resources, though occasionally over important ideas, especially ideas about human social organisation. And we haven’t done so within sovereign states either – or at least we haven’t done so in the West; China’s one-child policy undeniably succeeded in overriding the imperative in its most direct form. However, that is still only one aspect of a much bigger problem and China is only one country. Elsewhere in the world, including the West, population control is unthinkable, or at least unspeakable.

In the temple/city state model, individual humans were encouraged to reproduce in order to provide military manpower, and the imperative was either satisfied by expansion at the expense of other humans, or counterbalanced by a death rate kept high by famine, disease and endless warfare. This system was perfected by the Romans, who invented the republic and pushed territorial expansion to its absolute limits. Something similar applied in feudalism too – feudal estates had to supply soldiers to their rulers, and if that didn’t keep the population under control then localised famine did (there was very little international trade, and feudal estates aimed at self-sufficiency).

In the modern Western world of science, capitalism and democracy, we do not even attempt to overcome the biological growth imperative. Instead we celebrate it and encourage it. We have constructed social, political and economic systems that depend on it. To question the desirability of growth, whether in terms of population or GDP, is to reject the constraints of present political reality. It’s sufficiently outside the Overton Window to ensure that you are talking about the philosophical context of contemporary politics rather than actually taking part in it.

Our economic and political system requires that each individual human is actively encouraged to consume more, even though many don’t have enough. Control of human numbers is strictly taboo – “progressive” people frequently denounce it as ecofascism. The way to control the population, we are told, is to raise living standards – something that would require very large numbers of people who are currently very poor consuming significantly more than they currently do. Or perhaps the problem will simply solve itself, even though this would be catastrophic for our economic system. We are willing to call for a reduction in the wealth and consumption of the very rich, but it is widely assumed that all humans – at current population levels or higher – should have the right to enough resources not just to survive but to reproduce to our hearts’ content. Not many of us would consent to compulsory restrictions on our own rights to behave in all sorts of unsustainable ways.

We suffer from a profound psychological, political and cultural unwillingness to admit the reality of this situation. The only way to make civilisation work – to make it ecologically sustainable and therefore a viable example of co-operative evolution rather than an inherently unstable structure which is doomed to collapse – is to find ways to comprehensively and reliably control the biological growth imperative in humans. This has to apply both individually and collectively. Unfortunately there is no way to achieve this that does not conflict with what Westerners consider to be inalienable individual human rights, such as our unrestricted and unqualified right to reproduce, consume whatever resources we can legally acquire, and expand our personal territory (i.e. buy/own property and land). There is no pleasant way to square this circle.

[ref Hughes, W. O. H.; Oldroyd, B. P.; Beekman, M.; Ratnieks, F. L. W. (2008). “Ancestral Monogamy Shows Kin Selection is Key to the Evolution of Eusociality”. Science. 320 (5880): 1213-1216. ]

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The Weinstein Brothers (Game B) have made similar observations:

Eric Weinstein here - Embedded Growth Obligations (EGOs)

Bret Weinstein here - The Fourth Frontier

"evolutionarily [we have] an addiction to growth. That is to say creatures discover these opportunities they exploit them and they are constantly in a quest to find new ones. Growth is effectively what winning feels like in evolutionary terms right. So we call it growth in economic terms but really it is the same property that other creatures experience when they find a new location or a new mechanism for doing things that is superior to the old one’

My main problem with this is that it comes very close to naturalising the problem:

framing it as an endogenous, metaphysical property of ‘reality’ / an inevitable behaviour of the life-world-system at all scales. Rather than a contingent, socioeconomic process that is actively constructed by us / an emergent behaviour produced by the macro-historical conditioning of humans within the current civilisational structure.

E/Acc is a prime example of this:

"Effective accelerationism aims to follow…the ‘thermodynamic will of the universe’…to accelerate the progress towards [the] growth of civilization’ - Notes on e/acc principles and tenets: A physics-first view of the principles underlying effective accelerationism

When as Fischer wisely saw:

"emancipatory politics must always destroy the appearance of a ‘natural order’, must reveal what is presented as necessary and inevitable to be a mere contingency, just as it must make what was previously deemed to be impossible seem attainable.” - Capitalist Realism: Is There No Alternative?

Generally, I’m on board with most of your analysis in the larger section. When it gets to the point above, it misses some key data, however. The developed world (including most of Europe, Japan, Russia, Korea) is in demographic decline - children less than the replacement rate. A stringent “one child” policy was not required.

There is another problem, however, that tracks exactly with your analysis. That’s the requirement for something 3% annual GDP growth to avoid collapse of the credit system. Growth is more an economic than a biological imperative at this point.

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My main problem with this is that it comes very close to naturalising the problem:

framing it as an endogenous, metaphysical property of ‘reality’ / an inevitable behaviour of the life-world-system at all scales. Rather than a contingent, socioeconomic process that is actively constructed by us / an emergent behaviour produced by the macro-historical conditioning of humans within the current civilisational structure.

But that “framing” isn’t optional. This is why I (elsewhere) keep going on about the need to commit to structural realism rather than post-modern anti-realism. I don’t know about “endogenous” or “metaphysical”, but it is certainly ubiquitous in living systems. Our socio-economic processes can evolve culturally, but that does not change the underlying biological reality.

The idea that we can choose the framing here is postmodern, and I believe it is a fundamental part of the problem we need to solve. I don’t think there should be any debate here between you and me about the framing. I think you need to just accept what you don’t want to accept: that this framing is dictated to us by biological structures we cannot change. I think 2R requires us to move beyond this debate, because what lies beyond it is what actually matters.

We have a choice between the following two options:

(1) Admit the reality, and attempt the cultural changes necessary to overcome the BGI.
(2) Deny the reality, claim the framing is wrong/immoral and…?

I think option (2) leads to further biological evolution. I think that means the current biological model of Homo sapiens just isn’t smart enough to solve this problem culturally. It leads to an extended period of survival of the fittest until the biology/ecology changes (whether that means we get smarter, or life gets harder…)

Clearly option (1) is preferable in the long run. The problem is that we don’t want to accept it now, because we find the political consequences unacceptable.

"emancipatory politics must always destroy the appearance of a ‘natural order’, must reveal what is presented as necessary and inevitable to be a mere contingency, just as it must make what was previously deemed to be impossible seem attainable.”

I think this is part of the problem, not part of the solution. I think Fisher’s book is, in general, part of the problem. It contains no solutions. It’s just critique – it demands we imagine an alternative to capitalism, but then fails to do so.

This conversation we are having right now is right at the very core of the Metacrisis. This is what it is actually about.

Generally, I’m on board with most of your analysis in the larger section. When it gets to the point above, it misses some key data, however. The developed world (including most of Europe, Japan, Russia, Korea) is in demographic decline - children less than the replacement rate. A stringent “one child” policy was not required.

This is correct, but it fails to take account of what I already said about the BGI being satisfied in various different ways. We are willing to stop reproducing if our standard of living improves – in other words, if we increase our use of resources in another way. We’re still following the BGI – there’s still more resources being used. This solution still requires growth, it is just a different sort of growth.

There is another problem, however, that tracks exactly with your analysis. That’s the requirement for something 3% annual GDP growth to avoid collapse of the credit system. Growth is more an economic than a biological imperative at this point.

Another section from the book (this time from the final chapter):

Why an orderly transition is probably impossible

Let’s imagine we can wave a magic wand and force not only the politicians and economists but the whole of academia to accept realism and start talking the language game of ecocivilisation. Let’s imagine we can use magic to rid the world of political, economic and metaphysical fairy stories.

Theoretically we might expect this to lead to a great deal of progress in a relatively short period of time. Unfortunately, the entire global economic-monetary system would collapse in an even shorter period of time. That system is based on the fantasy of today’s debts being paid off out of the proceeds of future economic growth. If the post-growth truth was suddenly exposed there would be an immediate, catastrophic and irreversible loss of confidence in the existing system. It would precipitate the biggest economic-monetary crisis in the history of the world, and there would be no means of reviving the collapsed system because that would require a restoration of confidence in a system which would have already failed because of the recognition that it is fatally detached from reality. A new system would be required, but since there is no theoretical groundwork to tell us what the new system should look like, and there would be no time to construct it even if we knew how, we’d find ourselves in something of a pickle.

My thought experiment is an extreme example of “accelerationism” with respect to the collapse. Some people might even welcome this, and maybe it is morally justifiable, although it is impossible to predict the consequences well enough to guess whether it increases or decreases net suffering. Facing up to reality will probably accelerate the demise of the existing economic-monetary system, but since that system is doomed anyway I can see no great objection to putting it out of its misery sooner rather than later. If the question is whether we should speak the truth even if accelerates the collapse of the existing order, I believe the answer is clear: we have a moral responsibility to face reality, whatever the consequences, because the consequences of failing to do so will always be worse in the end.

Pretty similar to Peter Pogany’s analysis. Peter Pogany’s Thermodynamic/Economic Analysis of Recent World History « integral permaculture

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Very thought-provoking. I’m not sure I agree, but I’m glad you posted this.

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Can you say which parts you aren’t sure about?

I am happy to clarify or explore further.

I’ve listened to several podcasts about this - one of them being Geoffrey B. West.
There’s also Jordan Hall’s take on G.B.W.

Yes, we should admit the reality which is:

  1. Drive to grow and expand is one of the elemental aspects of evolution. It ensures that quality mutates through and finds new solutions to allow life to continue growing. To mess with it could cause a more profound collapse or extinction of life?
  2. We mess up with that principle and see what happens.

Pick your perspective and then we’ll find a new set of dilemmas and obstacles.

Totally in agreement with Fischer’s analysis on this subject.

We have to find a way to stop growing. We have to actively control this tendency – we have to find ways of organising civilisation which takes the BGI into account, and is designed to be sustainable anyway. How that is done is the fundamental question we need to answer, but not attempting to do it at all will be an ongoing disaster.

In other words, I am saying humans need to learn how to culturally manage this relationship rather than leaving it up to evolution to sort the problem out for us.

And how do you think Fischer’s analysis helps us to find solutions to the metacrisis?

I did not see any solutions in that book. What use is endless critique without any end result? What is the point in complaining about our inability to imagine something that can replace capitalism if you can’t imagine such a thing yourself?

The reason nobody can imagine what can replace capitalism is because we do not have a clear enough idea about what the word “capitalism” refers to, or why those “things” (whatever they are) actually exist.

This discussion is just reinforcing my conviction that postmodern anti-realism is a central part of the problem. Instead of real solutions to real problems, we get a refusal to accept what the real problem actually is. And this is then presented as morally advanced, and wise.

I’m not at all confident of my own thinking, but there are two areas that leave me feeling uncomfortable. Firstly, I think you talk about control in ways betraying that behind your critique of Western modernity, you still see reality as something to be controlled - itself a very Western modern trope. Have you read, for example, Hospicing Modernity?

The second area is to do with my understanding of the nature of reality, which is Whiteheadian, and suggests that out of constant change, new phenomena emerge - in common with understanding of systems thinking and complexity science. One of those phenomena is human self-reflective consciousness which is very young but which confers limited but powerful agency. Who can see what will happen as this ‘matures’ (or ages, if you prefer)

Please don’t feel you need to refute my thoughts - I see this as a part of an interesting dialogue, and need time to absorb all your points.

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It is interesting that you see the metacrisis as a ‘problem to be solved’. That, itself, is very much a ‘modern’ way of understanding.

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I disagree. Fischer is talking about the dominant systems and dominant views in teh society. He says that everything is possible and talks about the steps needed to effect a social change.

First you need to “de-mystify” the status quo mantra and you do it through Denaturalisation. It refers to the process of revealing that what is natural in society is a historical and social construct .

Then comes the realisation that the dominant system is not necessary and that it avails itself to changing.

In any case - replacing capitalism is a red herring…

How will you stop growing and preserve the potential for quality? Eugenics?
What happens with people psychologically once the struggle for resources stops?

The world problems will be solved by promoting potential (In other words - growth) not by economising, optimising, stifling… That’s a defeatist position.

Nature already has an answer for that - wars, famines, diseases

I am happy to just continue the discussion having heard that you are still forming your own thoughts. Dialogue is the point in us both being here.

I’m not at all confident of my own thinking, but there are two areas that leave me feeling uncomfortable. Firstly, I think you talk about control in ways betraying that behind your critique of Western modernity, you still see reality as something to be controlled - itself a very Western modern trope. Have you read, for example, Hospicing Modernity?

I have not heard of that book, no.

Do I see reality as something to be controlled? To a certain extent I do, yes. That is because I see no alternative other than a return to hunter-gathering, which is impossible for other reasons. Evolution has dealt us this hand – it has created a creature which “controls” the rest of the ecosystem in a way no other species ever has. We therefore have to learn how to do it in a way which is ecologically sustainable, or nature will have to finish the job biologically. I think we need to accept that this is just how nature is – that we are something new under the sun.

This clashes against a very widespread but unexamined belief that humans are “the finished article”. That view is shared equally by religious conservatives, modern liberals and postmodernists. In fact it is an open question – I don’t think the future is written.

The second area is to do with my understanding of the nature of reality, which is Whiteheadian, and suggests that out of constant change, new phenomena emerge - in common with understanding of systems thinking and complexity science. One of those phenomena is human self-reflective consciousness which is very young but which confers limited but powerful agency. Who can see what will happen as this ‘matures’ (or ages, if you prefer)

My own views are very closely related to Whitehead’s in many ways. I don’t see any clash between what you’ve written here, and my own views. Again…the future isn’t written. Our options are limited in certain ways, but within those limits there is still a vast amount of possible futures to choose between.

It is interesting that you see the metacrisis as a ‘problem to be solved’. That, itself, is very much a ‘modern’ way of understanding.

I see civilisation as an incomplete evolutionary revolution in human social organisation. Therefore we have a choice between

(a) find a solution ourselves, consciously, intentionally
(b) allowing the unconscious natural processes of evolution and ecology to find a solution.

Either way, a solution will be found. The current situation is transient – it is a short-term state. It is not sustainable.

I disagree. Fischer is talking about the dominant systems and dominant views in teh society. He says that everything is possible and talks about the steps needed to effect a social change.

First you need to “de-mystify” the status quo mantra and you do it through Denaturalisation. It refers to the process of revealing that what is natural in society is a historical and social construct .

Then comes the realisation that the dominant system is not necessary and that it avails itself to changing.

In any case - replacing capitalism is a red herring…

But this is all talk, and posturing, and moralising. There are no answers here. No way forwards. It offers us no hope, because it offers no viable vision of the future.

I think 2R has to involve a recognition that we are in an emergency for our species and the whole planet. It is no use sitting around delivering yet more talk about what is wrong with capitalism but failing to suggest anything positive.

How will you stop growing and preserve the potential for quality? Eugenics?

I very much hope we can do it culturally. Eugenics is not something I am advocating, even in desperate circumstances.

What happens with people psychologically once the struggle for resources stops?

Hopefully they can flourish. That is one of the pre-requisites for building an ecocivilisation – the struggle for resources must eventually be “engineered” out of existence.

The world problems will be solved by promoting potential (In other words - growth) not by economising, optimising, stifling… That’s a defeatist position.

I don’t understand this comment.

Nature already has an answer for that - wars, famines, diseases

Our long-term goal must be to abolish wars and famines. Disease will always be present.

Humans expanding into space

So to be clear…you think our civilisation can solve its growth problem by expanding into space before it collapses?