The Rise of Scientific Grand Narratives

Here’s a draft of a piece I’ve been working on. Feedback very welcome before I share it more widely - particularly on any influential scientific grand narratives I’ve omitted to mention!

[Edit: now posted on my substack here - with additional section on climate change and anthropocene]


Whereas for most of history the great stories of the journey of humanity as a whole have been religious or philosophical in nature, there’s recently been - I suggest - a trend towards scientific grand narratives.

While this trend is interesting in it’s own right, it’s especially interesting given the way the idea of grand narratives has been key in defining postmodernism.

As we’ll see, defining postmodernism in terms of philosophical grand narratives makes it quite plausible as a description of late twentieth century intellectual life as whole.

From this vantage point we can see how the rise of scientific grand narratives is a logical step for transcending the postmodern condition.

Lyotard on Grand Narratives

In his book The Postmodern Condition the French philosopher and sociologist Jean-Francois Lyotard famously defined postmodernity as a disbelief in grand narratives. But what precisely he meant by grand narratives is hard to pin down.

Grand narrative is described, first of all, as a meta-level, philosophical discourse that serves to justify or ‘legitimate’ science:

I will use the term modern to designate any science that legitimates itself with reference to a a metadiscourse of this [philosophical] kind, making an explicit appeal to some grand narrative, such as the dialectics of Spirit, the hermeneutics of meaning, the emancipation of the rational or working subject, or the creation of wealth … I define postmodern as incredulity toward metanarratives.
(Postmodern Condition, xxiii–xxiv)

As this quote indicates, one thing Lyotard has in mind here is the sweeping philosophies of history found in Hegel and Heidegger.

Hegel (‘the dialectics of spirit’) told of a metaphysical spirit of the ages evolving through cultural shifts into the liberal nation-state as the ‘end of history’.

And Heidegger (‘the hermeneutics of meaning’) dug even deeper, seeing technological evolution itself as merely a symptom of shifts in the meaning of ‘Being’, whose mysterious destiny offered hope for profound cultural renewal.

Each of these thinkers conceived of philosophy as having a unique capacity, distinct from those of the sciences, to encompass the long-term development or destiny of humanity as a whole.

And Lyotard insightfully looks at the ways that such views have been used to understand and ‘legitimate’ scientific activity in the context of the history of the modern university as an institution.

On this view of grand narrative, a postmodern society is one in which this kind of overarching philosophy of history is no longer credible.

So far, so good. But what complicates Lyotard’s account, is that he then says that this kind of philosophical grand narrative is only one of “two major versions of the narrative of legitimation”.

The second kind of grand narrative is said to be ‘more political’ rather than philosophical, and is introduced as giving priority to prescriptive rather than descriptive language games:

The important thing is not, or not only, to legitimate denotative utterances pertaining to the truth, such as “The earth revolves around the sun”, but rather to legitimate prescriptive utterances pertaining to justice, such as “Carthage must be destroyed” or “The minimum wage must be set at x dollars”

This second conception of grand narratives is more radical. If any system of political or normative language can potentially count as grand narrative, then the postmodern condition becomes one in which ethics and politics are no longer possible. So it’s this second conception of grand narrative that leads to the stereotypical view of postmodernism as nihilistic and apolitical.

So in short we can see Lyotard’s work as the source of two very different conceptions of grand narrative and therefore postmodernity.

PM1: Postmodernity as disbelief in grand philosophical narratives of world history

PM2: Postmodernity as a nihilistic disbelief in ethical and political systems

In the rest of this article I’ll try to show the benefits of narrowing the focus on the first of these (PM1), especially in the context of thinking about what might come after postmodernism.

Disbelief in Philosophical Grand Narratives

An important difference between these two conceptions, is that the second (PM2) is a lot more controversial than the first (PM1) as a description of society as a whole. While there certainly were nihilistic and apolitical dimensions of late twentieth century culture, ethical and political discourse still featured prominently in the intellectual life of the period.

By contrast, if you had to choose one thing that was shared by not only philosophers, but diverse streams of thought across the humanities and sciences of the post-world-war-two Western world, you’d be hard-pushed to find anything that stands up as well as the disbelief in philosophical grand narratives.

A whistle stop tour of twentieth century thought will I hope help make this plausible. Let’s start with the discipline of philosophy itself. The major faultline in twentieth century philosophy is usually said to lie between the ‘continental’ tradition prominent in France, Germany and Italy, and the ‘analytical’ tradition dominating the UK and US.

While analytic philosophy from logical positivism to contemporary ‘naturalism’ takes its steer from mathematical logic, physics and neuroscience, continental philosophy has looked more to linguistics (eg in poststructuralism), sociology (eg in the Frankfurt school), and history (e.g. Michel Foucault) for inspiration.

It is not surprising therefore that Lyotard’s idea of postmodernism as a sociological and historical concept arose in, and became highly representative of, the continental tradition. Similar ideas can be found in the work of Jacques Derrida, Roland Barthes, Jean Baudrillard, and many others.

But the disbelief in grand philosophical narratives is there right from the start of the analytic tradition as well. Bertrand Russell’s views on mathematical logic, for instance, developed alongside his rejection of the grand narratives of his early neo-Hegelianism. Karl Popper’s influential philosophy of science was accompanied by a critique of the ‘historicism’ of Hegel and Marx. And Rudolf Carnap’s logical positivism confronted the perceived illogicality of Heidegger’s mysterious Being.

In later phases of Analytic philosophy, we have Ludwig Wittgenstein’s attempt to dissolve the traditional problems of philosophy by an analysis of language games (which influenced Lyotard, as it happens), and Richard Rorty’s rejection of grand narratives that aspire to provide an objective ‘mirror of nature’.

More pervasively, there’s a methodology of philosophy that shifts over time from painstaking conceptual analysis to a methodological ‘naturalism’ that views philosophy as continuous with science - in each case with a hope of achieving the rewards of narrow specialisation in place of obscure, sweeping synthesis.

Looking beyond philosophy, the postmodern ‘theory’ of continental philosophy came to dominate literature, sociology and anthropology departments, spawning the field of cultural studies as it did so. Even in those departments that were less affected by these philosophical influences (departments of history, say) grand explanatory narratives were increasingly seen as having been superseded by patient and rigorous research based on primary sources.

In physics, chemistry, biology, neuroscience and the other ‘hard’ sciences the situation was similar: the average working scientist in these fields had little interest in larger philosophical or social questions, often due to a sense of their intractability, when compared to the clear metrics of progress within their specialised fields.

There were exceptions of course, to this widespread rejection of metanarrative. Hegel and Heidegger still had their followers, particularly through the lens of Hegel’s student Karl Marx: though the increasing difficulty in supporting Stalinism and Maoism forced the intellectual Left into increasingly contorted variants of the original narrative.

Liberal economics too displayed shades of Hegel in its application of rational methods to large social questions, and its implicit defense of liberal capitalism as the pinnacle of development - though here too only a few, like Amartya Sen, would dare lift their heads from the much more specialised work within much of the field.

And thinkers like Jurgen Habermas in Germany, and Charles Taylor in Canada managed to craft and preserve more modest yet still distinctly philosophical narratives of cultural evolution, though such efforts stand out all the more starkly against an intellectual backdrop that was sceptical of such efforts.

All of which is to say: if we define Postmodernity as a scepticism toward philosophical metanarrative, we have good reason to call this a characteristic intellectual attitude of the second half of the twentieth century.

From Philosophy to Science

Let’s be clear: this same attitude continues to dominate. Postmodernism in this sense has not gone away. But there are signs - which I’ll trace in what follows - that the mood is shifting.

Grand narratives are slowly returning, but in a new form. Instead of the metaphysical visions of modernity, the new-style grand narratives are emerging from science instead of philosophy.

There’s a logic to this. As Lyotard noted, the reason grand narratives became unbelievable was because of the success of the sciences. The methods of science had seemed to deliver the secure practical knowledge that philosophers could only dream of.

By comparison, philosophy seemed untethered and useless. While science made progress, philosophy produced seemingly endless disputes.

This science-envy led to the rise, mentioned earlier, of late Analytic philosophy’s ‘methodological naturalism’: the view that the best way to address philosophical questions was to just look at the relevant science. The sciences might require some interpretative and conceptual tidying, but essentially philosophy just is science, on this view.

Analytical naturalism was, as the name suggests, especially close to the natural sciences. Within Continental philosophy the analogous move was to merge with the social sciences. Bourdieu does aesthetics with sociology. Foucault turns morality into history. Derrida merges philosophy with literary theory.

Once we understand how the postmodern scepticism towards metanarrative was also scepticism of the idea of philosophy as a way of grasping world history distinct from the sciences, we can see why any new metanarratives would have to emerge within science itself.

Such scientific grand narratives would not only be exempt from the postmodern scepticism that targeted purely philosophical narratives; they could draw on the respect for the sciences within both analytic and continental approaches.

Physics and Cosmology

Ever since the ‘Big Bang’ theory was given support by the detection of the Cosmic Microwave Background in 1964, increasingly sophisticated cosmological models have generated cosmic narratives that place human concerns in the grandest possible context. Recent examples by physicists include Sean Carroll’s The Big Picture (2016) and Lawrence Krauss’s The Greatest Story Ever Told…So Far (2018).

In recent years this physics-based narrative has been expanded and extrapolated into the future in ever more imaginative ways. Books like physicist Michio Kaku’s The Future of Humanity (2019) and articles by interdisciplinary futurist Anders Sandberg (working towards a book called Grand Futures) consider the implications of current physics on humanity’s future development.

Evolutionary Theory

Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution was perhaps the original scientific grand narrative.

At least since biologist Richard Dawkins coined the term ‘meme’ in The Selfish Gene 1976, there’s been increasing interest in applying the theory’s basic dynamics of variation and selection beyond biology, and into the realm of physical processes on the one hand, and human culture on the other.

In this vein, the philosopher Daniel Dennett, in works such as Darwin’s Dangerous Idea (1995) and From Bacteria to Bach and Back (2017) has refined the basic concepts of cultural evolution, creating a grand narrative with implications for the human search for meaning and the nature of consciousness.

Still more ambitiously, physicist David Deutsch has sought (in The Fabric of Reality, 1997, and The Beginning of Infinity, 2011) to integrate evolutionary theory with the grand narratives of physics, and with Popper’s evolutionary philosophy of science, resulting in a scientific perspective on the future of humanity that - by emphasising the unpredictability of future science - resists Popper’s critique of historicism.

Integrating Deutsch’s work with the field of complexity science, cognitive scientist Bobby Azarian’s book The Romance of Reality (2022) defends a scientific and probabilistic idea of teleology within evolutionary processes, creating a narrative in which complex systems tend to self-organize in ways that tend to increasing levels of intelligence and agency.

Like psychologist Gregg Henriques’ Unified Theory of Knowledge (2024), both Deutsch and Azarian explore forms of evolutionary epistemology, in which the capacity for scientific knowledge is understood by placing it in its evolutionary context.

In this way evolutionary grand narratives escape Lyotard’s false assumption that science needs non-scientific legitimation: since the philosophy of science and epistemology can also be ‘naturalised’, scientific grand narratives resist the postmodern critique of metaphysics.

Big History

Grand historical narratives can be found in the works of historian Yuval Noah Harari (Sapiens, 2011; Homo Deus, 2016) who traces the development of human culture from prehistory through to a technological future, and anthropologist Joseph Henrich (The Secret of our Success, 2016; The WEIRDest people in the world, 2021) who applies evolutionary ideas to explain the development of religious and moral norms.

Like Jared Diamond’s earlier Guns, Germs and Steel (1997), Ian Morris’s book Why the West Rules - For Now (2010) derives the outlines of the story of world history from humanity’s relation to its geographical environment. In his companion volume The Measure of Civilization (2013) Morris develops a ‘social development index’ that allows him to quantify cultural evolution - and extrapolate into the future with surprising results.

Cognitive Science

In cognitive science, John Vervaeke’s Awakening from the Meaning Crisis (2024) reinterprets the history of Western thought from the perspective of a cognitive science of meaning and transformative experience, resulting in a narrative that recounts the emergence of a contemporary ‘meaning crisis’, along with a response to that crisis.

Similarly, neuroscientist Iain McGilchrist’s The Master and His Emissary (2020) tells the story of Western Civilization through the lens of the brain’s left and right hemispheres and their differences, and how these are expressed in major cultural shifts.

The work of another neuroscientist, Karl Friston, on predictive processing and the “free energy principle” also offers a unifying framework that relates cognition to statistical physics and information theory. This has in turn inspired physicist and entrepreneur Guillaume Verdon to sketch a cosmic narrative of ‘effective accelerationism’ in which technological acceleration is seen as both physically and morally mandatory.

Artificial Intelligence

Among the most prominent of the new scientific grand narratives are those around the emergence and potential future dominance of artificial intelligence, which is often thought to make previous models of cultural evolution irrelevant.

The more ambitious of these include futurist Ray Kurzweil’s optimistic visions of an expected merging of humanity and AI, and Eliezer Yudkoswki’s pessimistic forecast of the inevitable extinction of humanity due to advanced superintelligence.

These scientifically-based narratives put us at a pivotal moment in human history—one that could either lead to utopia or catastrophe, depending in part on our actions. Movements such as Effective Altruism and Longtermism draw out the ethical implications of this situation, recommending that more resources be allocated to resolving the ‘existential risks’ of AI and other technologies, whether by addressing the problem of ‘aligning’ powerful AIs or by means of a global slowdown or pause of AI research.

The Rise of Scientific Grand Narratives

Since Lyotard broadly embraced the postmodern condition, the term ‘grand narrative’ has a vaguely sarcastic ring to it. The extent to which we still hear the term as deflating philosophical pretensions, is a reflection of the extent to which we are, in this respect, postmodern.

It’s time to wrest the term back from postmodernism. It need not refer only to obsolete philosophical or religious grand narratives. Any temporally structured account of humanity - including a scientific account - that seeks to be maximally expansive in both space and time, can reasonably be called a grand narrative.

Religious and philosophical grand narratives have long been a foundation for experienced meaning and purpose for those who were moved by them. The postmodern meaning crisis was due to the death of God and ‘the end of philosophy’ as a source of meaning. The new scientific grand narratives offer much-needed orientation in a time where increasingly global and systemic problems seem to call out for wider perspectives.

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Good article!

There’s an air of superficiality around “Grand Narratives” and “Unified Theories of…” akin to marketing. They have a potential for scaling up the audience and followers and serving as tools (through legitimisation) for asserting dominant views. (I’m not saying they are…)

What would be interesting to me is how Grand Narratives affect individuals? Are the Grand Narratives aimed at the masses? Are they more intellectually accessible? Does their scope and scale add to the excitement and interest? Does their simplification and cogency make them more convincing?

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Yes to all that.

But it is only the scene-setter, right? It is suggesting that there could indeed be a new grand narrative, and that it is going to be built on science and naturalism, but so far we haven’t quite got there. We’re still feeling our way there.

I think you’re describing how the puzzle needs to fit together, in a general sense. But for me there is still something missing.

I think Nagel’s ideas in Mind and Cosmos are of particularly important. His argument is that the evolution of conscious organisms (I call this “psychegenesis”) must have been teleological, and he is in search of a new naturalistic grand narrative (though he doesn’t use that term). This, he says, must involve teleological laws, and there must be more than one unique example. This is why he argues that our capacity for moral reasoning and value judgements in general are probably also the result of teleological processes in evolution.

I think Nagel has hit the nail on the head. I think he’s as close to a naturalistic grand narrative as it is possible to get. But I don’t think it is enough. Something is missing.

That thing is quantum theory. Nagel hardly mentions it in Mind and Cosmos. He has provided one half of the central section of the new Grand Narrative. All we need now is the other half, and it needs to fit.

How did this teleology work?
What explains the teleology?
What has this got to do with quantum mechanics?

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Yes very interesting questions. Regarding weaponisation, it’s interesting to note that aside from postmodernism, the other main field that discussed metanarrative is the field of strategic communication. For example the Consortium for strategic communication at Arizona State University has produced books like Weapons of Mass Persuasion: Strategic Communication to Combat Violent Extremism. I think this is very relevant to the strategic issue of promoting the second renaissance or metamodernist narrative, for example.

As for the individual question, one way to see this is through Vervaeke’s agent-arena relationship - grand narratives offer a deep sense of meaning and purpose by making sense of our relationships with the largest arenas.

It’s also an interesting question whether a theory’s being intellectually or emotionally satisfying counts for or against it. I’d suggest that it is a point in favour of a theory, but that it also means extra vigilance is required to ensure the theory is being adopted for good reasons, rather than because of emotional bias. The move from philosophical to scientific (less biased?) grand narratives seems very relevant here.

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Yes exactly, this is only general scene-setting, establishing a common ground (‘minimal integral worldview’?) between various post-postmodern approach that can then serve as a basis for diving into more specific grand narratives like metamodernism or second renaissance.

Very interesting about Nagel, I’ll need to look at Mind and Cosmos more closely - and possibly add him to the article!

And agree those are great questions - not sure if you’ve seen, but I’ve got some articles on quantum mechanics on my substack, not really looking at the questions you raise, but definitely an area I’m interested in. See Meaning in the Multiverse.

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I did have a look at your website.

You seem to be a believer in the MWI. Is that right?

Believer might be too strong, but probably the one I’d bet on if I had to choose yes.

OK. This is extremely important. It is the key to the whole thing.

Why would you bet on the MWI?

How much do you know about the history of quantum metaphysics? Are you aware of the sequence of events whereby the various competing interpretations came into existence? How important do you consider John von Neumann’s contribution to be?

Just the usual reasons people defend it - David Wallace and David Deutsch set them out well. Probably best to take this conversation elsewhere though - would be very happy to have a call about this at some point.

Why don’t you want to continue this conversation here?

The Grand Narrative we are looking for isn’t just scientific. It will involve philosophy and science working together. The answer is staring us in the face. The reason why nobody has put the pieces together is that involves combining the two interpretations of QM which seem least likely to fit together — von Neumann’s “consciousness causes the collapse” (CCC) (or rather Stapp’s extension to it) and the MWI.

One of the major objections to CCC is this: if consciousness causes the collapse of the wave function, then what collapsed it before the first conscious organism evolved? The people who ask this question think it is a show-stopper. Anything you suggest that could have collapsed the wave function before that point in evolution could surely be collapsing it after – so also now. In which case the intepretation fails, because there’s no need to posit that consciousness collapses the wave function (because something else does).

But there’s a default answer that is being overlooked: nothing collapsed the wave function before the first conscious organism evolved. If so then something very like the MWI would have been true – the cosmos would have been in an MWI-like state. All possible histories would be playing out. Which means it is absolutely guaranteed that in one of those timelines everything happens just right for the appearance of the first conscious organism. This isn’t a show-stopping problem at all. On the contrary, it is the missing explanation for Nagel’s teleology. If that is what happened, then from our point of view it would look exactly like consciousness teleologically evolved.

This explains why the Cambrian explosion happened. It also explains why there is no conscious life anywhere else in the cosmos – because the primordial superposition could only be collapsed once. The “magic” could only happen once. (So Nagel was wrong – psychegenesis was a unique process.)

This also provides an explanation for why it feels like we have free will – we actually do have free will, and this is a similar teleological process. As are various forms of “supernatural” phenomena like synchronicity and karma. Except we need a new word, because this sort of supernatural does not breach the laws of physics. I call it “praeternatural”, and call physics-busting supernatural “hypernatural”.

Finally, if this cosmology is correct then it opens the door to a new epistemological agreement upon which we can base discussions about politics and spirituality/religion. Add Ecocivilisation as a great societal goal and this is how we can hold a new paradigm together.

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Love your essay! In a Venn diagram of our mutual libraries, there is a, considerably sized intersection. I’ll be ordering off your reference list in due course to expand that intersection, because I feel parallel purpose at work here.

My latest approach to metanarrative is 1) everybody needs one (or perhaps a few) and 2) they are all provisional and subject to revision in light of hard experience.

To briefly illustrate - it is worth protecting old growth forest? Under certain metanarratives, jobs and lumber now are the most important requirements. Under other metanarratives, carbon sequestration and species diversity are more urgent considerations. Ad hoc policy debates detached from such metaframings to me seem counter productive to sense-making.

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Great! Yes am getting a sense that our libraries are quite aligned, though definitely only a part of mine on display in that post.

Totally agree about metanarratives being both important provisional, and subject to refutation, that’s partly how I understand them being ‘scientific’ - scientific theories evolve in the face of new evidence.

Given Gebser’s typology of structures of consciousness (archaic, magic, mythic, mental, integral) it seems to me metanarrative participates primarily in the mythic. Modern metanarratives about progress, for example, strike me as unexamined mythologizing. The postmodern attempt to abolish metanarrative might thus be viewed as the last stand of the mental - the moment the mental swallows its own tail so to speak. Because the integral structure specifically integrates all the others, conscious mythologizing through metanarrative no longer needs to be a cause for embarrassment or unconscious obfuscation. Also, because the mental is also included in the integral, we can analyze and critique such provisional metanarratives with great abandon. The integral self is not necessarily attached to its own speech acts, and there are considerable degrees of freedom in that.

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