In a previous post I talked about the three layers of causation in the polycrisis to metacris – written up properly in the main Polycrisis to Metacrisis whitepaper.
The Middle Layer: Three Intermediate Causes of the Metacrisis
Here I want to talk more about the middle layer, and the three intermediate causes of the metacrisis: collective action problems, principal-agent problems and value misperception.
When you look closely, I would suggest that that all the problems at the “intermediate” layer of the metacrisis come down to three issues:
- Collective action problems aka coordination problems, prisoner’s dilemma, multi-polar traps, Moloch, races to the bottom. These are cases, like arms races: even if every state wants to restrict some dangerous technology (e.g. powerful AI or nuclear weapons) — or at least would be willing if all others did — because there is a risk that another state will speed up (and do so secretly) then everyone speeds up.
- Externalities & Principal agent problems aka perverse incentives, externalities etc. this is where the system (be that the market, democracy, the bureaucracy) mis-incentivizes for the result it wants leading to the over or under production of some important good. e.g. market capitalism rewards financial profit but fails to include externalized costs like pollution. Or you pay people capture rats or pollution and this leads some people to farm rats or create pollution so they can get paid for turning it in.
- Mis-perception of value: we mis-perceive the value of things. We think a tree is more valuable dead than alive, that uploading our minds to machines is the way to go, that eating donuts is good for me etc.
Regarding the metacrisis (and social problems in general) all three are relevant. However, collective action problems are generally by far the most significant — and hardest to address.
Colophon
This was originally posted back in May on substack.