This is an offshoot from this thread.
A Fictional Real Path to Ecocivilisation
[written early 2025, in the book The Real Paths to Ecocivilisation]
Given that the future is going to be increasingly chaotic, predicting it is a mug’s game. What follows was intended to be believable at the time of original publication, with no expectation that it would remain so for very long. The purpose is to set ideological ideas into a future timeline as a means of imagining how ideology might influence the course of events, and vice versa. I invite readers to start from whatever the situation is at the time of reading and try to imagine a realistic scenario that is more optimistic.
The collapse of the post-WW2 global order
The US withdrawal of support for Ukraine under President Donald Trump irreparably fractured NATO. European countries concluded they could not rely on the US to remain within the alliance and began military restructuring. The EU, UK, Nordic countries and Turkey established independent defence agreements, forming the European Defence Union (EDU) in 2027. Further defence treaties were agreed with Australia, New Zealand and Canada (which now considered its southern neighbour to be a potential threat).
Russia, emboldened by US disengagement, pushed deeper into Ukraine. In 2028, a coalition of European nations (led by the UK, Germany, France, and Poland) intervened directly. Putin’s nuclear threats were exposed as bluffs, and European forces pushed Russian troops out of Ukraine in the autumn of 2029. Ukraine became a heavily militarised buffer state, permanently tied to the European security framework.
Meanwhile, both Russia and the US had begun to break up. In the US, democratic institutions eroded rapidly, elections became openly manipulated, and protests were violently suppressed. Civil unrest escalated, with secessionist movements gaining traction in California, Texas and the Pacific Northwest. By 2030, the US was no longer considered a democracy but an unstable oligarchy. The Russian Federation had also run out of road. With its military humiliated and its economy in freefall, Russia descended into civil war. Warlords, oligarchs and regional governors carved up the country, and nuclear proliferation became a global crisis as Russian weapons fell into rogue hands. China then moved in, annexing parts of Siberia under the guise of “peacekeeping operations”.
The economic collapse of Russia and the US resulted in a global depression. The dollar ceased to be the world’s reserve currency, initially being replaced by a multipolar financial system dominated by the Euro and the Yuan. Big questions hung over the future of digital currencies as people began to wonder whether the energy demands were sustainable.
As the Arctic continued to thaw, a new resource war emerged. What remained of the federal US tried to seize Greenland for its vast mineral reserves and strategic location. Canada and the European Defence Union resisted , leading to a series of military standoffs, as Greenland became one of the most heavily militarised zones in the world.
Then nuclear conflict broke out in the Middle East. With US power waning, Israel faced existential threats from Iran and its proxies. The war was triggered by an Iranian Islamist group using Russian nuclear weapons to attack Israel. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and much of the Middle East were obliterated and the region became largely uninhabitable due to radiation and escalating climate change.
Globally, fossil fuel infrastructure had now collapsed. With Middle Eastern oil fields destroyed and Russian production halted, the world faced an energy crisis, leading to further investment in nuclear and renewables. By this point there were also “water wars” breaking out in many parts of the world, and migration had become a massive crisis everywhere.
China had now become a dominant global power, and took Taiwan in 2038. North Korea, with Chinese support, conquered South Korea in 2040. However, India, Japan and Southeast Asian nations pushed back, forming their own military alliances. Chinese expansion into former Russian territory brought resources but also guerrilla resistance and economic stagnation. Then in 2042, China backed the Renminbi with gold , instantly turning itself into a new financial superpower. This proved to be the last straw for the US, and it was consumed by chaotic civil conflict. By 2044, what had been the US was divided into three distinct entities:
The Democratic States of America (DSA)
New England & Great Lakes, plus the Pacific states (California, Oregon, Washington), strategically and ideologically allied with Europe and Canada.
Deseret
Utah & the Interior West became an independent and isolationist fundamentalist theocracy.
The American Heartland (Midwest, South and Texas) was ruled by oligarchs. Here, democracy had been reduced to a shell.
Geopolitically, the world was now split into two major blocs. One was Europe and most of the rest of the West. Here, democracy still survived, though malfunctioning more than ever. The “populist right” was now in power in many places, and close to it in many more. The other was the authoritarian East, where democracy was dead. Those parts of the Middle East that remained borderline inhabitable, including the ruins of Israel, were controlled by an Islamic caliphate. Many states in Africa, South America and South East Asia weren’t aligned with either of the main groups. Life there was grim too, and one by one they were disappearing from the geopolitical map – becoming failed states from which very little reliable information filtered out to the rest of the world.
The die-off accelerated. Ecological breakdown was in full swing. Bucking this trend, greenhouse emissions from human sources were significantly lower. Several factors were at work – including population reduction, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, and the destruction and non-replacement of production and processing facilities during the Middle East War. But it was too late to make much difference to long-term climate change – the consequences of which were already everywhere. And although direct human emissions were now falling, feedback effects such as loss of ice cover and methane emissions from melting permafrost and seabed clathrates meant that climate change itself was still accelerating.
The goal of ecocivilisation had now become a major priority in the whole of the authoritarian bloc, led by China. In this regard (and many others) the West was either still paralysed by democracy, or ruled by authoritarian governments that considered the idea of Ecocivilisation to be a neo-Marxist plot with a goal of finishing off capitalism. No solutions were forthcoming to the worsening systemic problems.
Metamorphosis
Then a new political movement emerged in Europe, calling for the Westernisation of the concept of ecocivilisation, not on the model of the authoritarian East, but as a last desperate attempt to save democracy in the West. It described its own politics as “Social Democratic Econationalism”. The mainstream social left and centre accused it of being a sinister new incarnation of the right, while the economic right and centre accused it of being a particularly deluded brand of leftism. Both insisted that its commitment to democracy was a deception, and that its true goal was to dismantle democracy and replace it with eco-fascism. In reality, the new movement had some elements in common with the pre-collapse left, others in common with the pre-collapse right, but its defining characteristics were new. It was opposed to immigration and “woke” ideology, which it had in common with the right, but the emphasis was very different. It could not be described as socially conservative, because it was advocating socio-cultural changes that were radically progressive in an entirely new way. Its objection to immigration was motivated by ecological realism, a point reinforced by diligent policing of racism and xenophobia in its ranks. It rejected “woke” politics not because of the challenge to traditional social values but because of its failure to fully engage with reality – especially the practical realities of surviving the die-off and the construction of an ecocivilisation in the West. Economically, it was far more radical than the pre-collapse left. It was the first political movement to consistently and unwaveringly commit to creating a post-growth economic system, something that would require far more than tweaking neo-liberal capitalism to reduce inequality. It advocated a complete redesign of monetary systems, first at the national level and ultimately internationally. Among its many radical goals was the elimination of private banking and the establishment of new localised currencies to facilitate the development of a new localised economic system, parallel to the existing monetary system (the increasingly dysfunctional system of free-floating electronic fiat national currencies). They were committed to ending the system by which the very rich get ever richer at the expense of the rest of society – to the abolition of “the elite”. Always, the watchwords were realism and coherence and that was genuinely new. This new political movement called itself Metamorphosis – a reference to the fact it embraced the ongoing collapse as an opportunity for transformation, using the metaphor of caterpillar and butterfly.
Metamorphosis had a philosophical wing, tasked with ensuring the movement was guided by science, realism, rationalism, holism and systems thinking, especially in terms of ecological policy but also in terms of morality. Its task was to avoid the systemic detachment from reality that had characterised the whole spectrum of pre-collapse politics. Zero tolerance was shown for arguments that growth could be the solution to any medium to long-term problems. Unrealistic virtue signalling was consistently challenged, and war was declared on bad faith communication in general.
The philosophical wing of Metamorphosis was also anti-materialistic and allied to an emerging post-materialistic movement within the scientific establishment. It viewed scientism as a central pillar of the bankrupt culture that had led humanity to the global catastrophe it called “The Eco-apocalypse”.
A new meta-ideology began to take shape, the central idea of which was something called the New Epistemic Deal. It began as a sort of “peace treaty” between scientific and spiritual communities, intended to provide a framework for avoiding and resolving ideological disputes. The meta-ideology was associated with a meta-movement, acting as a co-ordinating hub and umbrella for various sub-movements that disagreed about many things but nevertheless accepted that the NED was necessary to achieve the more important goal recognised by everybody involved: the construction of ecocivilisation in the West. Though they knew this would require an overturning of the entire existing ideological order, they were also keenly aware of the need to preserve as much as possible of what was actually worth keeping of two and a half millennia of cultural progress. They did not just want to match the great work that was already underway in the East; they wanted do so without sacrificing what they called The Best of the West. That included not just science, but as much liberalism, democracy and individualism as could be made compatible with a Western ecocivilisation.
In the late 2050s Metamorphosis began to make serious political inroads in various parts of Europe, including the UK, which by then had a new proportional voting system. Opposition was fiercest in North America, where many people saw it as existential threat to (what remained of) capitalism and wanted it suppressed at any cost. This led to ever-deepening fractures in American society, but in Europe Metamorphosis was unstoppable. It was fundamentally forward-looking, as opposed to what remained of the giant anachronism the old political order had become, and the population was crying out for transformational change.
The Council of Ecocivilisation
By the mid 2060s the philosophical wing of Metamorphosis had become more overtly eco-spiritual. Its members believed that Western civilisation was in need of something like a new religion, and yet “religion” wasn’t quite the right word for it. This new kind of ideological movement not only incorporated the entire corpus of scientific knowledge but considered its denial to be immoral. For much of human history, religion had served as the glue that held civilisation together. It provided cosmologies that satisfied people’s need for an explanation of how and why the cosmos came into being and what were the proper places of humans and other living things. These ideas weren’t always right, but most of them were considerably better than nothing. Religions also provided people with meaning and purpose, and an ethical framework by which to live their lives. Frequently they had also taken a political role, though in the West these duties had largely been taken over by secular politics during the great convulsions of the 16th and 17th centuries. The movement called itself The Council of Ecocivilisation. The New C of E, or NCoE.
NCoE was openly critical of all three of the big Abrahamic religions, believing they had, on balance, created considerably more problems than they had solved. Christians, Jews and Muslims were involved, but these were individuals who fully acknowledged the problem of absolutist claims on theological truth – they were radical reformers, and treated with extreme hostility by conservatives. NCoE was trying to provide for the West what Taoism was providing for China’s inchoate but developing ecocivilisation. Their most serious internal disagreements were ethical and metaethical, as a result of the ever-deepening tension between the need to act in a morally defensible way and the practical necessities for both survival and the need to establish an ecocivilisation. By this point it was widely understood that these two things – survival (at all levels of society, and in all countries) and the transition from civilisation to ecocivilisation – were converging.
The transformation of the West
As the ecological and economic situation continued to deteriorate, Metamorphosis became the most powerful political bloc in several European states. However, since they found it impossible to co-operate with any of the old political parties, European politics remained paralysed. The authoritarian East saw Metamorphosis as an ally, and supported it however it could.
In the 2070s Metamorphosis started calling for a revolutionary change to Western democracy. They proposed to restrict the franchise to those able to pass a basic examination in ecology and systems thinking. “Ecolacy” (a term coined by 20th century American ecologist Garrett Hardin) was to be granted a status equal to that of literacy and numeracy. Anybody standing for election had to pass a more advanced exam, as did those applying for many other important jobs or roles. They argued that there was no other solution to the problem of democratic nations being unable to elect governments capable of dealing with the long-term ecological crisis or the worsening consequences of economic inequality – the only way to save democracy and whatever could be saved of liberalism.
The worse the general situation became, the more people were willing to listen to this message. Civil war was brewing in several European nations, including the UK. Both sides (Metamorphosis and the old establishment) feared that the other was going to resort to armed conflict to assert political control, so both prepared for conflict, and in 2078 civil wars broke out across the continent. Metamorphosis, with its growing support, organised militias to protect its interests and enforce its ecological and political agenda. The old political establishment, with backing from the rump US, tried to suppress it. Seeing an opportunity to weaken the West further, China covertly supported Metamorphosis. The war intensified, leading to widespread devastation and the collapse of governments. Metamorphosis gained or consolidated control in some places, and embarked on a programme of radical ecological and political reforms. What was left of the old political structures crumbled under the combined pressure of internal strife and external interference. The conflict resulted in yet another massive humanitarian crisis. Millions more were displaced, leading to unprecedented refugee flows within Europe. Infrastructure collapsed, and basic services became scarce, exacerbating the already dire ecological and economic conditions.
Despite fierce opposition, Metamorphosis solidified its power. Its message of ecological realism and transformational economic and systemic reform resonated with a desperate population. The movement now began to implement its vision of ecocivilisation, focusing on genuine sustainability, resource redistribution, and a new form of governance based on ecological literacy. A new pan-Western currency was established, backed with both gold and renewable energy assets. Global power dynamics had now shifted. The Eastern bloc, despite its own internal challenges, had now emerged as the dominant global power, influencing a new world order based on authoritarianism and ecological pragmatism.
By the end of the 21st century, the combined impact of war, civil unrest, and ongoing ecological degradation had accelerated the global ecological collapse even more. Natural disasters had become more frequent and severe, further destabilising societies and economies worldwide. The crisis led to further cultural and ideological shifts globally. Traditional religious and political structures were fading away. Movements advocating for new forms of governance, social organisation and spirituality gained prominence, seeking to address the deep-rooted causes of the crisis. In the midst of all this a new form of Christianity – EcoChristianity – was growing internationally, fully aligned with the goals of the NCoE. It explicitly rejected the historical interpretation of the gospels, and emphasised the role of Jesus as a radical socio-political reformer as well as a spiritual revolutionary. It took great inspiration from the work of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, Thomas Berry and John B.Cobb, and explicitly rejected hypernaturalism. It developed an eco-mystical form of Christianity that was scientifically and historically credible.
The world had entered a period of profound transformation, marked by the collapse of old structures and the emergence of new paradigms. This was the age of the Eco-apocalypse. Metamorphosis played a central role in shaping the future, though it faced immense challenges. The ultimate outcome still remained uncertain, as humanity grappled with the consequences of past actions and strived to forge a sustainable path forward amidst the ruins of the old world order.
By the early 22nd century the alliance between Metamorphosis-controlled Europe and the eco-authoritarian Eastern bloc had deepened. They coordinated policies on ecological restoration, resource management, and technological development. Both benefited from this cooperation, with Europe gaining access to Chinese resources and technology, and China leveraging European expertise in ecological science and governance models. Metamorphosis now implemented those models across Europe, focusing on ecological literacy and genuine sustainability. China’s influence helped stabilise the region by providing infrastructure support and economic investment. The governance structure evolved to combine elements of democracy with technocratic oversight, ensuring that ecological considerations were paramount in decision-making processes.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the regions of the former US developed their own new systems of governance, reflecting the diverse political and cultural landscapes. The DSA adopted progressive policies similar to those of Metamorphosis. The rest of the former US was basically authoritarian, though some parts had reverted to more localised, community-based governance models. The breakup of the US led to significant economic and social challenges. Interstate trade became complicated, and there was a struggle to maintain national infrastructure. Some regions thrived by innovating and adapting to new circumstances, while others faced severe hardship, leading to increased migration and further internal conflict. The newly autonomous regions sought alliances to strengthen their positions. Conflicts arose over resources, ideological differences, and territorial disputes, further fragmenting the North American continent.
Global transformation
The alliance between Metamorphosis and the eco-authoritarian bloc (Eco-Alliance) launched ambitious ecological restoration projects globally. These included reforestation, soil regeneration, and efforts to restore biodiversity. They also worked on developing renewable energy sources and large-scale permaculture, aiming to create a resilient global ecosystem. Significant advances in technologies and scientific research led to breakthroughs in energy storage, carbon capture, the standardisation of repairable products and sustainable living practices. These advances were shared within the alliance and with other regions willing to adopt ecocentric policies.
The global crisis accelerated the cultural and ideological shifts. In Europe and elsewhere, traditional religions and political ideologies lost their influence, and in their place new spiritual and philosophical movements emphasised ecological interconnectedness and holistic thinking. The Council of Ecocivilisation became the guiding force for a new form of eco-spirituality that integrated scientific understanding with a reverence for nature.
A completely new approach to economics became possible at long last. A global currency was established, overseen by a new global monetary authority (GMA) whose sole task was to manage the new currency in the interests of creating the conditions necessary to construct ecocivilisation at the global level. Its goal was to administrate and manage an economic system viewed by all parties as as “fair” as it can possibly be. This was both to facilitate the development of ecocivilisation, and to minimise conflict. Some people saw (and some still do see) the GMA as a precursor to a more extensive form of global government, others maintain it will always be impossible to get rid of sovereign states and international borders.
By the middle of the 22nd century the focus on realism, resilience and sustainability had started to pay off. Regions under the Eco-Alliance became more self-sufficient and better able to withstand ecological and economic shocks. Communities adapted to new ways of living that are less resource-intensive and more in harmony with natural systems. While the Alliance brought stability to the regions where it operated, tensions remained high in North America. Diplomatic efforts were made to prevent conflicts, but disputes persisted, mainly over resources and ideology.
The concept of democracy evolved within Metamorphosis regions. The idea of ecological literacy as a prerequisite for political participation gained acceptance, leading to a more informed and engaged citizenry. This new form of democracy, though controversial, demonstrated the potential for balancing individual freedoms with collective ecological responsibility.
By the end of the 22nd century the world had been transformed. The Eco-Alliance shaped a new global order, offering a vision of hope amidst the ongoing challenges. The future remained uncertain, but the commitment to ecological principles had provided a foundation for rebuilding global civilisation in a more sustainable and equitable way.
The state of the Earth in 2250
It is now 2250AD. A 7°C rise in global temperatures has drastically altered the Earth’s climate. Many equatorial regions are uninhabitable due to extreme heat and humidity. Desertification has spread, and natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are more frequent and intense. The majority of the surviving human population has migrated towards the far north and south, where temperatures are more manageable. New population centres have developed in what were previously harsh, sparsely inhabited polar regions. Many species have gone extinct due to habitat loss, climate change, and human activity. However, there are also examples of rapid adaptation and evolution among some species. Efforts to preserve genetic material and ecosystems have created artificial biospheres and seed banks to maintain biodiversity.
Technology has evolved significantly, with a focus on sustainability and adaptation to harsh environments. Advances in bioengineering, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence are prevalent. Renewable energy sources have been maximised to meet human needs. The principles of Metamorphosis and eco-authoritarianism have evolved into a more unified global ideology, focusing on living in harmony with the environment. This includes strict ecological regulations, sustainable living practices, and a deep integration of technology with nature.
Despite the technological advances, resource scarcity remains a significant challenge. Water and good arable land are limited, leading to ongoing conflicts and competition for these essential resources. Strict population control measures are in place. Migration continues to be a contentious issue, as people seek refuge in more habitable areas, leading to social and political tensions.
The psychological impact of living in a drastically changed world has led to increased mental health issues. Communities focus on social cohesion and support systems to maintain mental well-being and prevent societal breakdown. There is a strong emphasis on intergenerational responsibility, with education systems focusing on teaching children about sustainability, resilience, and the mistakes of the past. This fosters a global culture of accountability and long-term thinking.
Cities and settlements are designed to withstand extreme weather and environmental conditions, often featuring domed or underground structures to regulate temperature and protect inhabitants from the elements. Urban agriculture and vertical farming are commonplace.
A new cultural enlightenment has emerged, blending ancient wisdom with advanced technology. There is a revival of ancient/indigenous knowledge and practices, integrated with modern ecological science. Art, literature, and philosophy reflect a deep connection to the environment and a collective effort to preserve what remains of the natural world. Despite the challenging circumstances, there is a resilient hope among humanity. The focus on adaptation, innovation, and ecological harmony provides a sense of purpose and direction. Humans have become adept at finding ways to survive and thrive in an altered world, continually seeking balance with the environment.
The Council of Ecocivilisation has grown into a dominant spiritual and philosophical movement. It promotes a holistic worldview that sees humans as an integral part of the Earth’s ecosystem. This has led to new rituals, ethical frameworks, and communal practices centred around ecological stewardship and interdependence. Its “Bible” is the Western Book of the Eco-apocalypse.
Epilogue
By 10,000 AD, the human species, now deeply integrated with the ecological systems of Earth, has achieved an unprecedented balance with nature. After millennia of painstaking recovery and adaptation, Earth’s climate has stabilised. Radioactive fallout from 21st century conflicts, though devastating in its time, accelerated the mutation rate, giving rise to new, resilient ecosystems. Humanity has moved beyond its industrial past, and is now in a stable relationship with Earth’s ecosystems.
Technology is now almost entirely biotechnology. Cities are living organisms, integrated into ecosystems rather than dominating them. A system of global governance ensures that all human activity remains within ecological limits. The scars of previous collapses serve as eternal reminders of the consequences of overreach. Ethical systems are rooted in deep ecology, viewing humans as one species among many, with a responsibility to care for the biosphere. Traditional concepts of individualism have been replaced by a more collective consciousness, fostered in part by conscious quantum biocomputers. Through centuries of experimentation and integration with biotechnology, human consciousness has begun to expand beyond traditional biological constraints. Consciousness now interfaces with the biocomputers, which are not only computing devices but sentient entities, helping to manage ecosystems with sensitivity and awareness.
With Earth’s ecological balance restored, humanity’s gaze turns outward. Mars, long the subject of fascination, is the next grand challenge. The project to terraform Mars is not driven by a desire for colonisation in the old sense, but intended as an extension of Earth’s biosphere – a new frontier for ecological and planetary restoration. The biocomputers guide the project. Linked with human decision-makers, they are capable of running endless simulations and designing highly specialised microorganisms that can thrive in Martian conditions. Their function is to alter the atmosphere, breaking apart carbon dioxide molecules to release oxygen and metabolising rocks to release nitrogen. Mars’ temperature is being raised by lichen-like organisms that darken the surface and orbital mirrors to reflect sunlight onto the planet. This warming triggers the release of water trapped underground, beginning the process of forming rivers, lakes and shallow seas.
The project is a slow, centuries-long process, but with each step Mars becomes more hospitable. It follows strict ecological and ethical principles. Rather than simply replicating Earth’s ecosystems, the new biosphere is designed to respect the planet’s unique conditions, allowing Martian ecosystems to develop in their own way. Terraforming Mars represents the culmination of millennia of philosophical evolution. It is seen not as domination over nature but as the nurturing of new life – a profound act of ecological creativity.
Humanity has evolved beyond the catastrophes of its past, embracing a caretaking role, not just of life on Earth but across the Solar System. The Mars project represents both a technological triumph and a spiritual mission: to extend life to new worlds.
) here. Most of us are just poor researchers struggling to make ends meet. 