Goal and Throughput for Second Renaissance Research

Context: working with @dvdjsph on behalf of the Research Circle Stewards on getting an initial “goal and throughput” definition for Second Renaissance Research Circle.

Goal and Throughput

This is simple operational definition of the research group’s objective and productivity metric.

Goal

The primary goal is to continuously improve the core Second Renaissance knowledge trees, namely:

  • Goal Tree
  • Problem Tree
  • Prerequisite Trees (collectively)

These trees are intended to become increasingly accurate, useful, and action-guiding representations of the path towards a Second Renaissance. Their value lies not in their size or complexity, but in how well they model reality and support effective decision-making.

Throughput

As an initial operational metric, throughput is defined as:

The number of changes made to the trees.

A change includes:

  • creating a node,
  • updating a node,
  • deleting a node,
  • or otherwise modifying the structure.

This is explicitly recognised as a proxy measure, analogous to lines of code in software engineering.

Just as writing more code does not necessarily produce better software, making more edits does not necessarily produce better trees. The real objective is the quality of the resulting knowledge structure.

Consequently:

  • throughput measures activity;
  • quality control evaluates whether those changes improve the trees;
  • success is ultimately judged by whether the trees become more accurate, useful, and effective in guiding action towards a Second Renaissance.

Implications

Once a shared tree exists:

  • it becomes the central object around which research is organised;
  • new ideas can be located within the existing structure;
  • forum discussions can reference specific nodes rather than remaining isolated conversations;
  • research effort becomes cumulative rather than fragmented.

The tree therefore serves both as a shared knowledge base and as the organising framework for future work.

Next Steps

Immediate objective

Create a shared, editable representation of the Second Renaissance trees that people can collectively inspect, critique, and improve.

This becomes the focal point around which research is organised.

Overall sequence

Create initial 2R trees
        ↓
Create landing page explaining the methodology
        ↓
Create walkthrough/demo
        ↓
Build Research Circle Goal Tree
        ↓
Build Research Circle Problem Tree
        ↓
Resolve highest-priority conflicts
        ↓
Develop Solution Tree
        ↓
Develop Prerequisite Tree
        ↓
Execute implementation tasks
        ↓
Continuously improve the trees

1. Produce an initial 2R tree

Not because it is correct, but because it gives everyone something concrete to improve.

The tree should explicitly be presented as Version 0.

2. Create a simple landing page (or Google Doc)

This becomes the entry point for new researchers.

It should explain:

  • the purpose of the research circles
  • the goal
  • the throughput metric
  • the five-tree methodology
  • how contributors participate

3. Produce a walkthrough/demo

Rather than explaining the methodology abstractly, demonstrate it.

For example:

  • start with an existing 2R tree
  • show a forum post
  • identify where it belongs
  • update a node
  • explain why the update improves the tree

The demo should communicate the workflow visually rather than technically.

4. Build the first Research Circle Goal Tree

Apply the methodology to the research group itself.

Potential branches include:

  • researchers can access the trees
  • researchers can propose updates
  • researchers can discuss disagreements
  • researchers can resolve conflicts
  • updates are reviewed for quality
  • knowledge accumulates over time

5. Build the corresponding Problem Tree

Identify why collaborative knowledge-building is currently difficult.

Examples discussed include:

  • no shared editable platform
  • no agreed process for updating trees
  • fragmented forum discussions
  • ideas fail to accumulate
  • lack of structured review

These problems should then be traced to deeper root causes.

6. Analyse major conflicts

For each important problem, identify the competing objectives.

The discussion’s principal example was:

Objective A

Create an effective process that allows progress.

Objective B

Create a perfectly coherent representation before proceeding.

These conflict because insisting on perfection prevents practical progress.

The aim is not to choose one objective, but to identify the underlying needs and design an “injection” that satisfies both sufficiently.

7. Generate Solution and Prerequisite Trees

Once a workable compromise is identified:

  • test it using the Solution Tree
  • identify unintended consequences
  • derive the Prerequisite Tree
  • convert prerequisites into concrete implementation tasks

This naturally produces the research group’s work programme.

Appendix: The LTP trees

Tree Core question Output
Goal Tree What are we trying to achieve? Desired future state
Problem Tree Why are we not there today? Root causes and leverage points
Conflict Resolution Tree What fundamental trade-offs prevent progress? Pragmatic compromise (“injection”)
Solution Tree If we implement the compromise, what happens? Tested solution and anticipated effects
Prerequisite Tree What must exist to implement the solution? Action plan and implementation sequence

Together these form a complete reasoning pipeline from vision to execution.

1 Like

Did you mean to leave out the Solution and Conflict Resolution trees?

Here is my human-scaled, non-AI-assisted take on these matters.

  • What are we trying to achieve? - long term human survival on a biologically rich planet.

  • Why are we not there today? - past environmental harms from excesses of industrial civilization

  • What fundamental trade-offs prevent progress? - vested power and financial interests obstruct solutions. Likewise, the on-going perpetuation of struggles over power and wealth threaten additional harm.

  • If we implement the compromise, what happens? - the most likely to succeed solutions are local coop or community models that are resilient to macro-level collapse. These models provide the mostly likely seeds for future civilizational regeneration.

  • What must exist to implement the solution? - we need conceptual clarity about the current situation and how matters are trending. We likewise need conceptual clarity about the proper role for any given person in that person’s situated geographic and social location.

No, I just copied and pasted the doc.

The first items are more a level up on the 2R goal tree i think - rather than goal tree for 2R research circle.

:+1: i think this in a broad sense is very consonant with “improvements to the 2R knowledge trees”

Here is the same analysis over again, this time tightly scoped around 2R RESEARCH only!

  • What are we trying to achieve? - conceptual clarity about the current situation and how matters are trending. We likewise need conceptual clarity about the proper role for any given person in that person’s situated geographic and social location. (Note this is a “branch” off of the more general 2R tree above).

  • Why are we not there today? - too many competing theories and perspectives, leading to cognitive incoherence. Also, people defending dogmatic positions for reasons of personal power, status, or lack of personal development.

  • What fundamental trade-offs prevent progress? - There is a time and effort cost to synthesis of worldviews. (Among other things, it takes time to study the history and geography of worldviews) There may also be a social cost to the surrender or compromise of entrenched positions. Denial is generally energetically easier, until circumstances force consideration of alternative views.

  • If we implement the compromise, what happens? - One possible strategy for handling the considerations above is to make 2R a forum for alternative views that encourage personal synthesis. The assumption here is that personal development can overcome rigid identification with tribal or ideological fixed positions. The content of such personal syntheses cannot, of course, be specified in advance. A second metaphysical assumption underlying the 2R research process is that we live in a unified reality, with diverse perspectives on that unified reality. This makes sharing across perspectival horizons more likely to promote cognitive coherence rather than further cognitive dissolution.

  • What must exist to implement the solution? - we need active communication channels and the publication of artifacts such as papers, essays, courses, videos, and podcasts.